Trajectory predictability analysis under convective weather conditions

Abstract

Weather prediction uncertainties are a limitation and a challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations. Understanding the effect of these uncertainties is essential in order to improve the reliability and predictability of the Air Traffic Management system. In this project convective regions are considered as the unique source of uncertainty. The scope of the project is to relate the effect of these regions to variations in flight trajectories with respect to the planned ones. The project can be divided into three parts: the first one requires gathering flight information and structuring it in an organized way. The second one consists on obtaining meteorological information and associating a factor of risk to each flight. This factor is a measurement of the exposure to potential convective storms. Finally, this factor of risk is related to relevant aspects of the flight, such as delays or changes in the route. The results obtained in this project could contribute to an enhancement of Trajectory-Based Operations, allowing a better understanding of the effect of these uncertainties in aircraft trajectories, improving therefore, the predictability of the Air Traffic Management system.