Publication: Trajectory predictability analysis under convective weather conditions
Loading...
Identifiers
Publication date
2018
Defense date
2018-07-05
Authors
Tutors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Abstract
Weather prediction uncertainties are a limitation and a challenge for
Trajectory-Based Operations. Understanding the effect of these uncertainties is
essential in order to improve the reliability and predictability of the Air Traffic
Management system. In this project convective regions are considered as the unique
source of uncertainty. The scope of the project is to relate the effect of these regions
to variations in flight trajectories with respect to the planned ones.
The project can be divided into three parts: the first one requires gathering flight
information and structuring it in an organized way. The second one consists on
obtaining meteorological information and associating a factor of risk to each flight.
This factor is a measurement of the exposure to potential convective storms. Finally,
this factor of risk is related to relevant aspects of the flight, such as delays or changes
in the route.
The results obtained in this project could contribute to an enhancement of
Trajectory-Based Operations, allowing a better understanding of the effect of these
uncertainties in aircraft trajectories, improving therefore, the predictability of the
Air Traffic Management system.
Description
Keywords
Aircraft navigation, Air Traffic Management, Forecast uncertainty, Convective regions, Trajectory-Based Operations (TBO)