RT Generic T1 Trajectory predictability analysis under convective weather conditions A1 Rodríguez Carrillo, Juan AB Weather prediction uncertainties are a limitation and a challenge forTrajectory-Based Operations. Understanding the effect of these uncertainties isessential in order to improve the reliability and predictability of the Air TrafficManagement system. In this project convective regions are considered as the uniquesource of uncertainty. The scope of the project is to relate the effect of these regionsto variations in flight trajectories with respect to the planned ones.The project can be divided into three parts: the first one requires gathering flightinformation and structuring it in an organized way. The second one consists onobtaining meteorological information and associating a factor of risk to each flight.This factor is a measurement of the exposure to potential convective storms. Finally,this factor of risk is related to relevant aspects of the flight, such as delays or changesin the route.The results obtained in this project could contribute to an enhancement ofTrajectory-Based Operations, allowing a better understanding of the effect of theseuncertainties in aircraft trajectories, improving therefore, the predictability of theAir Traffic Management system. YR 2018 FD 2018 LK https://hdl.handle.net/10016/29271 UL https://hdl.handle.net/10016/29271 LA spa DS e-Archivo RD 1 sept. 2024