DCS - H-GLACIAL - Artículos de Revistas

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Un enfoque monetario de la inflación en el largo plazo: El caso de Uruguay (1870-2010)
(Fondo de Cultura Económica, 2016-03) Brum, Conrado; Román, Carolina; Willebald Remedios, Henry Francisco
El objetivo de este artículo es explicar el comportamiento de la inflación en Uruguay durante el largo plazo (1870-2010). Se utiliza un modelo de inflación monetaria, pues se entiende que la trayectoria de largo plazo de la inflación debería estar determinada por las condiciones de equilibrio en el mercado de dinero. Se estima una curva de Phillips del tipo forward-looking, que incluye como variable explicativa de las expectativas de inflación el crecimiento del núcleo monetario (definido como la tasa de crecimiento tendencial de la oferta nominal de dinero que excede al crecimiento de largo plazo de la demanda real de dinero, el que es guiado por la evolución del producto potencial (output adjusted core money, OACM). Se encuentra que el impacto del OACM en la inflación es positivo y significativo, aunque no se rechaza que en el corto plazo sea igual que otros efectos. Sin embargo, en el largo plazo, el OACM tiene un impacto unitario en la tasa de inflación. A partir de la comparación del OACM con la inflación, se construye un indicador de monetización que permite indagar sobre los procesos de desmonetización y remonetización que experimentó esta economía en los últimos 140 años
Hacia un nuevo Estado desarrollista: desafíos para América Latina
(Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Mexico (FLACSO), 2016-06-01) Zurbriggen, Cristina; Travieso Barrios, Emiliano
La primera década del siglo XXI constituyó una coyuntura de transformaciones en el mapa político de América Latina. Después de una larga hegemonía de las fuerzas políticas de derecha y centro-derecha, las de izquierda y centro-izquierda -un conjunto muy heterogéneo- conquistaron los gobiernos de la región con un discurso crítico del modelo neoliberal, que subrayaba el papel del Estado como actor clave del proceso de desarrollo. En este escenario, la crisis de 2008 profundizó este debate, enfocando la relación del Estado con las élites y el capital extranjero, así como en su capacidad de articular una estrategia de desarrollo para construir sociedades más prósperas y justas. Este artículo revisita los dos paradigmas del papel del Estado en los procesos de desarrollo: el modelo neoliberal y el desarrollista, a la luz de enfoques teóricos de disciplinas como la ciencia política, la historia económica y la economía del desarrollo. Se concluye que el gran desafío de una nueva teoría y práctica del Estado en América Latina se encuentra en construir coaliciones desarrollistas amplias que permitan contrapesar los intereses centrífugos de las élites locales y las corporaciones trasnacionales.
Breaking the ties that bind: Metropolitan dependence and export growth in the poor periphery, 1950-90
(Elsevier B.V., 2024-03) Absell, Christopher David; Federico, Giovanni; Tena Junguito, Antonio
Decolonisation was one of the most important institutional transformations of the twentieth century. Recent work on the effect of decolonisation on bilateral trade has suggested that trade with the ex-metropolis declined significantly after independence. Due to problems related to data quality and coverage, however, there is still no consensus on whether the reduction of colonial dependence encouraged or impeded export growth. In this paper, we argue that metropolitan trade shares proxy for colonial monopsony. Using a new database of exports at constant prices for 131 countries and mean group estimators that control for a range of confounding factors, we find that trade shares with the metropole are negatively associated with export growth, with important differences across metropolitan nationalities and locations. We argue that the significance of the erosion of colonial trade ties for export growth following independence was contingent on the interaction of policy and location during the colonial period.
Power Politics and the Expansion of US Exports, 1879-1938
(Wiley, 2023-11-01) Tena Junguito, Antonio; Restrepo Estrada, María Isabel; Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)
In this article, we present quantitative evidence for the first time of the effect of US power politics on the expansion of its export market from the late nineteenth century to the eve of the Second World War. Like other empires, US imperial policy was expressed through annexation, gunboat policies, and asymmetrical trade agreements. We find that US exports to territories that became colonies or protectorates and those involved in other US military interventions grew more than three times faster between 1880-5 and 1934-8 than in the rest of the world. Our most relevant contribution to this discussion relies on a new geographically extensive database with information on bilateral trade flows, market size, trade costs, and variables that capture US political and military power. We first estimate a gravity equation to see the relationship between our power politics variables and US exports. Then, we present causal evidence of the role played by the colonies and protectorates in the expansion of US exports through an event study and the estimation of a generalized difference-in-differences model.
Soils, scale, or elites? Biological innovation in Uruguayan cattle farming, 1880-1913
(Wiley, 2023-05-01) Travieso Barrios, Emiliano
This article examines the economics of innovation in livestock rearing during the first globalisation in Uruguay, the country with the most cattle per person in the world, both then and now. Using a new historical dataset of Uruguayan agriculture, the first one at a sub-provincial level, I exploit regional differences in the adoption of cattle crossbreeding - the genetic improvement of local herds through hybridisation with foreign breeds. Contrary to traditional historiographical claims, I find that this innovation was not primarily explained by the location of enlightened elites (European or local) or by the scale of productive units (i.e. latifundia); rather, rural producers invested in crossbreeding wherever their local landscapes and previous productive choices encouraged it. While it affected biological processes that spanned several agricultural calendars, and thereby developed more slowly than innovations in crop farming, technical change in Uruguayan ranching was also environmentally sensitive, largely scale-neutral, congruent with previous agricultural patterns, and hinged on a widespread response from producers.
Trade in the shadow of power: Japanese industrial exports in the interwar years
(Wiley, 2020-08-01) Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro; Tena Junguito, Antonio; Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (España); Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
During the interwar years, Japanese industrialization accelerated alongside the expansion of industrial exports to regional markets. Trade blocs in the interwar years were used as an instrument of imperial power to foster exports and as a substitute for productivity to encourage industrial production. The historiography on Japanese industrialization in the interwar years describes heavy industries’ interests in obtaining access to wider markets to increase economies of scale and reduce unit costs. However, this literature provides no quantitative evidence that proves the success of those mechanisms in expanding exports. In this article we scrutinize how Japan— a relatively poor country—used colonial as well as informal power interventions to expand regional markets for its exports, especially for the most intensive human capital sector of the industrializing economy. Our results show that Japanese exports in 1938 would have been around one-third smaller had no empire ever existed, which indicates an outstanding effect of empire in the international context.
Patrones de consumo de las familias de trabajadores en Buenos Aires, Argentina,entre 1907 y 1933
(Asociación Uruguaya de Historia Económica, 2019-12-01) Nicolini, Esteban; Correa Deza, María Florencia; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España)
La historia de los niveles de vida en Argentina a finales del siglo XIX y principios del XX requiere precisiones sobre los patrones de consumo de las clases populares para poder construir índices de precios que permitan transformar variables nominales en reales. Existen diversos ejemplos de conjuntos de ponderaciones de los distintos tipos de gasto en las familias obreras en Argentina, sin embargo, esas proporciones no son coincidentes.Este artículo analiza informes editados por el Departamento Nacional del Trabajo que publica los resultados de encuestas de gasto familiar en la Capital Federal realizadas durante los años 1907, 1908, 1911, 1912 y 1933 y analiza la evolución de los porcentajes de gasto de los principales rubros de consumo, sus variaciones en el tiempo y el impacto sobre ellos de los distintos niveles de ingresos y del tamaño de la familia.Sobre la base de esos análisis, el estudio se propone estimar las curvas de Engel para los períodos 1907-12 y para 1933. Los resultados sugieren que el porcentaje de gasto en alimentos se reducía a medida que el ingreso por adulto equivalente familiar aumentaba y que, para un dado ingreso, el porcentajede gasto en alimentos aumentó significativamente en la década de 1930 en relación al período anterior a la IGM.
Comparing income and wealth inequality in pre-industrial economies: The case of Castile (Spain) in the eighteenth century
(Oxford University Press, 2021-11-01) Nicolini, Esteban; Ramos Suarez, Fernando; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
Most research on inequality in pre-industrial economies has focused on either wealth or income, generating not readily comparable results. In this paper,we use a unique data set of Spain circa 1750 including information on (among other things) wealth and income for the same sample of households. Our findings provide methodological insights showing that a household’s position in the income distribution is strongly correlated with its position in the wealth distribution but is also influenced by several other household specific characteristics like human capital of the head of the household and the economic sector of her/his main occupation.
Do you have to be tall and educated to be a migrant? Evidence from Spanish recruitment records, 1890-1950
(Elsevier, 2019-08-01) Juif, Dacil Tania; Quiroga Valle, Maria Gloria
We use Spanish military records stemming from the late-19th to the mid-20th century to assess internal migrants' self-selection. We find that migrants were, on average over the whole period, around one centimeter taller than non-migrants, and in the booming 1920s, the height advantage of movers reached three centimeters. The positive self-selection was larger for migrants originating in poorer provinces and traveling longer distances. A further finding is that migrants were positively selected in terms of literacy and socio-economic status according to their occupation. Professionals were most likely to have migrated internally and farmers least.
The rise of coffee in the Brazilian south-east: tariffs and foreign market potential, 1827-40
(Wiley, 2020-11-01) Absell, Christopher David
During the period spanning independence in 1822 to mid-century, Brazil’s south-east shifted from specializing in the export of cane sugar to coffee. This article explores the mechanism underlying this shift by exploiting a wealth of new monthly data on the Brazilian and international coffee and cane sugar markets during the period 1827– 40. It argues that the timing of the coffee boom was driven by a rapid increase in foreign market potential associated with the abolition of the tariff on coffee in the US. It estimates that American tariff reform served to increase coffee exports and African slave imports by around one-fifth. American firms, wi th in direct li nks to th e slave trade, rapidly became major players in the export market in Rio de Janeiro, while non-American firms, t raditionally s pecialized in c ontinental European destinations, turned their sights on the American market.
Numeracy of religious minorities in Spain and Portugal during the Inquisition era
(Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, 2020-01-01) Juif, Dacil Tania; Baten, Joerg; Perez-Artes, Mari Carmen
We assess the numeracy (age heaping) of religious minorities, particularly Jews, and other defendants of the Spanish and Portuguese Inquisitions, and compare it with the general Iberian population. Our database includes 13,000 individuals who took part in Inquisition trials, and 17,000 individuals recorded in censuses and parish registers who serve as a control group. We thoroughly discuss the representativeness of our samples for the populations we aim to capture. Our results point at a substantial numeracy advantage of the Judaism-accused over the Catholic majority. Furthermore, Catholic priests and other groups of the religious elite who were occasional targets of the Inquisition had a similarly high level of numeracy.
Human Capital and Institutions on Latin American FDI (1970-2014)
(IES Valle del Ebro, 2019-01-01) Ayuso Díaz, Alejandro
The following thesis belongs to the literature of FDI determinants on developing countries and its main contribution is its distinction between societies that are redistributive (in the sense that they spend bigger proportions of GDP in Social Protection) and those that aren't. For this purpose, the present paper gathers information about FDI inflows and many possible determinants, among which, we will care about Human Capital and Institutional Quality, for 17 Latin and Central American countries (not including islands) between 1970 and 2014. After that, a static linear econometric model is estimated using panel data techniques and results show that both variables of interest affect FDI inflows in a positive way and that their marginal effect is bigger in those societies spending more in Social Protection. Such a positive impact is confirmed after using a dynamic model, but not the incremental effect of spending more in Social Protection.
World trade, 1800-1938: a new synthesis
(Cambridge University Press, 2019-03-01) Federico, Giovanni; Tena Junguito, Antonio; Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España); European Commission
This paper outlines the development of world trade from 1800 to 1938. It relies on a newly compiled database, which, unlike previous works (e.g. Lewis 1981), reports series of imports and exports at current and constant prices and at current and constant (1913) borders for almost all existing polities. In the first sections, we outline the estimation methodology and assess the reliability of the series (now available at http://www.uc3m.es/tradehist_db). World trade grew very fast throughout the «long» 19th century, but growth rates were higher before 1870. We measure the effects of war and the Great Depression on total trade and trade by continent and polity. Within this general upward trend, the performance of polities differed by geographical location, level of development, political status and factor endowment. Finally, we estimate trends in the share of primary products, which declined until World War One, with an acceleration in the second half of the 19th century.
La desigualdad económica regional en América Latina (1895-2010)
(Asociación Española de Historia Económica, 2020-10-01) Nicolini, Esteban; Badia Miró, Marc; Martínez Galarraga, Julio; Tirado Fabregat, Daniel A.; Willebald Remedios, Henry Francisco; Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España); Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades (España)
En este artículo se analiza por primera vez el crecimiento y la evolución de la desigualdad regional a lo largo del proceso de desarrollo económico de nueve países de Latinoamérica (Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México, Perú, Uruguay y Venezuela) entre 1895 y 2010. Para ello, en primer lugar se verifica la presencia de un proceso de beta-convergencia entre los países latinoamericanos para la totalidad del periodo. No obstante, se muestra cómo este proceso fue especialmente intenso durante los periodos en los que los diferentes Estados implementaron políticas activas de desarrollo (ISI) que favorecieron la convergencia entre las regiones de un mismo país. En segundo lugar, se estudia la sigma-convergencia tomando como unidad de análisis el conjunto de regiones que componen estos nueve países. Se muestra cómo la desigualdad económica regional ha seguido una evolución en forma de N a lo largo del periodo analizado. En particular, Latinoamérica registró un incremento en la desigualdad regional desde finales del siglo xix hasta el periodo de entreguerras. Sin embargo, desde el final de la Segunda Guerra Mundial hasta la crisis de la década de 1970 se registró un notable proceso de convergencia regional. Finalmente, los cambios en el consenso político y económico internacional en la década de 1980 marcaron el inicio de una nueva etapa de crecimiento de la desigualdad regional latinoamericana.
United by grass, separated by coal: Uruguay and New Zealand during the First Globalization
(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2020-07-01) Travieso Barrios, Emiliano
While the role of coal has been the subject of long-running debate in the historiography of the Industrial Revolution, its part in the economic development of the global periphery has been comparatively neglected. The technological context of the ‘First Globalization’ (c.1870–1914) made pastoral production in the periphery increasingly dependent on modern energy, as new methods of production and transportation bridged the distance between grasslands in the south of the world and kitchens in the north. By comparing choices of meat preservation techniques in Uruguay and New Zealand – two small settler economies that prospered on the back of pastoral exports – this article highlights the usefulness of an energy perspective on agriculture-based transitions to modern economic growth. Different conditions of access to coal shaped how New Zealanders and Uruguayans exploited their livestock herds when terms of trade favoured them the most, with important consequences for the persisting income gap between them.

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