Publication: Elecciones municipales en España: un análisis multinivel de los determinantes individuales y contextuales del voto
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2016-04-01
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Centro de Estudios Políticos y Constitucionales
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Abstract
Desde la instauración de los primeros ayuntamientos democráticos en 1979, se han celebrado diez elecciones municipales en España. En los escasos estudios dedicados a ellas, el voto ha sido habitualmente explicado recurriendo a variables de ámbito nacional según el conocido modelo de las elecciones de segundo orden. En este trabajo examinaremos la validez de estos patrones de comportamiento cuando introducimos también factores explicativos de carácter local. Para comprobarlo, hemos estimado distintos modelos multinivel utilizando una ambiciosa base de datos que contiene variables individuales y contextuales para una muestra representativa de municipios españoles entre 1991 y 2011. Los resultados son sumamente interesantes: factores individuales como la ideología de los votantes e indicadores contextuales como la tasa de desempleo a nivel municipal inciden de manera significativa en la probabilidad de votar al partido del alcalde.
Since the establishment of the first democratic local councils in 1979, ten municipal elections have taken place in Spain. In the few studies devoted to them, voting has habitually been explained by using national variables and following the wellknown model of second-order elections. In this paper we examine the validity of these conclusions by also considering local factors. We have estimated several hierarchical models using an ambitious datasetwhich includes both individual and contextual variables for a representative sample of Spanish municipalities between 1991 and 2011. Our empirical results are particularly interesting, with individual factors such as voters’ ideology and contextual indicators such as the unemployment rate at the municipal level having a significant impact on the probability of voting for the incumbent mayor’s party.
Since the establishment of the first democratic local councils in 1979, ten municipal elections have taken place in Spain. In the few studies devoted to them, voting has habitually been explained by using national variables and following the wellknown model of second-order elections. In this paper we examine the validity of these conclusions by also considering local factors. We have estimated several hierarchical models using an ambitious datasetwhich includes both individual and contextual variables for a representative sample of Spanish municipalities between 1991 and 2011. Our empirical results are particularly interesting, with individual factors such as voters’ ideology and contextual indicators such as the unemployment rate at the municipal level having a significant impact on the probability of voting for the incumbent mayor’s party.
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Elecciones Municipales, España, Modelos multinivel, Elecciones de segundo orden, Local elections, Spain, Multilevel models, Second-order elections
Bibliographic citation
Riera, P., Gómez, R., Barberá, P., Mayoral, J. A. & Montero, J. R. (2016). Elecciones municipales en España: un análisis multinivel de los determinantes individuales y contextuales del voto. Revista de Estudios Políticos, 172, pp. 47-82.