Score-driven threshold ice-age models: Benchmark models for long-run climate forecasts

Escribano, Álvaro

Publication:
Score-driven threshold ice-age models: Benchmark models for long-run climate forecasts

dc.affiliation.dpto	UC3M. Departamento de Economía	es
dc.contributor.author	Escribano, Álvaro
dc.contributor.funder	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)	es
dc.contributor.funder	Agencia Estatal de Investigación (España)	es
dc.contributor.funder	Comunidad de Madrid	es
dc.date.accessioned	2023-10-04T14:46:01Z
dc.date.available	2023-10-04T14:46:01Z
dc.date.issued	2023-02-01
dc.description.abstract	Climate variables are known to be subject to abrupt changes when some threshold levels are surpassed. We use data for the last 798,000 years on global ice volume (Ice), atmospheric carbon dioxide level (CO2), and Antarctic land surface temperature (Temp) to model and measure those long-run nonlinear climate effects. The climate variables have very long and asymmetric cycles, created by periods of upward trends, followed by periods of downward trends driven by exogenous orbital variables. The exogenous orbital variables considered by the Milankovitch cycles are eccentricity of Earth's orbit, obliquity, and precession of the equinox. We show that our new score-driven threshold ice-age models improve the statistical inference and forecasting performance of competing ice-age models from the literature. The drawback of using our 1000-year frequency observations, is that we cannot measure the nonlinear climate effects of humanity created during the last 250 years, which are known to have generated abrupt structural changes in the Earth's climate, due to unprecedented high levels of CO2 and Temp, and low levels of Ice volume. On the other hand, the advantage of using low-frequency data is that they allow us to obtain long-run forecasts on what would have occurred if humanity had not burned fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution. These long-run forecasts can serve as benchmarks for the long-run evaluation of the impact of humanity on climate variables. Without the impact of humanity on climate, we predict the existence of turning points in the evolution of the three climate variables for the next 5,000 years: an upward trend in global ice volume, and downward trends in atmospheric CO2 level and Antarctic land surface temperature.	en
dc.description.sponsorship	Blazsek acknowledges funding from Universidad Francisco Marroquín, Guatemala. Escribano acknowledges funding from Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad, Spain (ECO2016-00105-001 and MDM 2014-0431), Comunidad de Madrid, Spain (MadEco-CM S2015/HUM-3444), and Agencia Estatal de Investigación, Spain (2019/00419/001).	en
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation	Blazsek, S., & Escribano, A. (2023). Score-driven threshold ice-age models: Benchmark models for long-run climate forecasts. Energy Economics, Vol. 118, p. 106522.	es
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106522
dc.identifier.issn	0140-9883
dc.identifier.publicationtitle	Energy Economics	es
dc.identifier.publicationvolume	118	es
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10016/38532
dc.identifier.uxxi	AR/0000033069
dc.language.iso	eng	es
dc.publisher	Elsevier	es
dc.relation.projectID	Gobierno de España. RTI2018-101371-B-I00	es
dc.relation.projectID	Gobierno de España. ECO2016-00105-001	es
dc.relation.projectID	Gobierno de España. MDM 2014-0431	es
dc.relation.projectID	Comunidad de Madrid. S2015/HUM-3444	es
dc.rights	© The authors	es
dc.rights	Atribución 3.0 España	*
dc.rights.accessRights	open access	en
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/	*
dc.subject.eciencia	Economía	es
dc.subject.jel	C32
dc.subject.jel	C38
dc.subject.jel	C51
dc.subject.jel	C52
dc.subject.jel	C53
dc.subject.jel	Q54
dc.subject.other	Antarctic land surface temperature	en
dc.subject.other	Atmospheric CO2 level	en
dc.subject.other	Climate change	en
dc.subject.other	Dynamic conditional score	en
dc.subject.other	Generalized autoregressive score	en
dc.subject.other	Global ice volume	en
dc.subject.other	Score-driven ice-age models	en
dc.title	Score-driven threshold ice-age models: Benchmark models for long-run climate forecasts	es
dc.type	research article	*
dc.type.hasVersion	VoR	*
dspace.entity.type	Publication