Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model

Abdalmalak Dawoud, Kerlos Atia; González Serrano, Francisco Javier

Publication:
Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model

dc.contributor.author	Abdalmalak Dawoud, Kerlos Atia
dc.contributor.author	González Serrano, Francisco Javier
dc.date.accessioned	2023-11-09T17:15:13Z
dc.date.available	2023-11-09T17:15:13Z
dc.date.issued	2016-07-10
dc.description.abstract	The problem of large population is one of the most important factors influencingthe economy and social advancement of Egypt. Population forecasts, whencarefully and intelligently made, serves a valuable purpose in helping to direct theemployment of labor and capital to places or projects where they are most needed.Firstly, the paper focuses on studying the population of the capital of Egypt (Cairo).By large numbers of sampling to the population data sequence, the increasing trendis found. Then, a time series model is given which can accurately forecast thepopulation of Cairo. Multiple Autoregressive models AR (1), AR (2) are used theforecasting of the population in the next twenty years. The parameters of the modelare calculated using the famous two methods: Yule-Walker and Burg. Before usingthe model to make predictions, the test of model response is verified, and the MSEand MAPE are measured to verify the models. The result is a scary image of thepopulation in this city. Full descriptions for the steps of selecting the suitable modeland comprehensive MATLAB simulation are presented. Secondly, the totalpopulation density of Egypt is analyzing and forecasting with using the measureddata from 1970 to 2013. The same steps of the first part are done with thepopulation density and forecasting of the increasing of the population density ofEgypt in the 20 next years is presented. The main reasons for the populationproblem are discussed and solution of this problem is presented	en
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation	Abdalmalaka, K., & Gonzalez-Serrano, F. (2016). Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model. The Egyptian International Journal of Engineering Sciences and Technology, 19(EIJEST, Vol. 19, 2016), 346-352.	en
dc.identifier.doi	https://doi.org/10.21608/eijest.2016.97136
dc.identifier.issn	1687-8493
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage	346	es
dc.identifier.publicationissue	2	es
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage	352	es
dc.identifier.publicationtitle	The Egyptian International Journal of Engineering Sciences and Technology	en
dc.identifier.publicationvolume	19	es
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10016/38816
dc.identifier.uxxi	AR/0000031753
dc.language.iso	eng	es
dc.publisher	Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University Egypt	es
dc.rights	© The authors	en
dc.rights	Atribución 3.0 España	*
dc.rights.accessRights	open access	es
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/	*
dc.subject.eciencia	Telecomunicaciones	es
dc.subject.other	Population forecasting	en
dc.subject.other	ARMA model	en
dc.subject.other	Yule-Walker equations	eb
dc.subject.other	Burg equations	en
dc.title	Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model	en
dc.type	research article	*
dc.type.hasVersion	VoR	*
dspace.entity.type	Publication