Publication: Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model
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2016-07-10
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Faculty of Engineering, Zagazig University Egypt
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Abstract
The problem of large population is one of the most important factors influencingthe economy and social advancement of Egypt. Population forecasts, whencarefully and intelligently made, serves a valuable purpose in helping to direct theemployment of labor and capital to places or projects where they are most needed.Firstly, the paper focuses on studying the population of the capital of Egypt (Cairo).By large numbers of sampling to the population data sequence, the increasing trendis found. Then, a time series model is given which can accurately forecast thepopulation of Cairo. Multiple Autoregressive models AR (1), AR (2) are used theforecasting of the population in the next twenty years. The parameters of the modelare calculated using the famous two methods: Yule-Walker and Burg. Before usingthe model to make predictions, the test of model response is verified, and the MSEand MAPE are measured to verify the models. The result is a scary image of thepopulation in this city. Full descriptions for the steps of selecting the suitable modeland comprehensive MATLAB simulation are presented. Secondly, the totalpopulation density of Egypt is analyzing and forecasting with using the measureddata from 1970 to 2013. The same steps of the first part are done with thepopulation density and forecasting of the increasing of the population density ofEgypt in the 20 next years is presented. The main reasons for the populationproblem are discussed and solution of this problem is presented
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Keywords
Population forecasting, ARMA model, Yule-Walker equations, Burg equations
Bibliographic citation
Abdalmalaka, K., & Gonzalez-Serrano, F. (2016). Forecasting of Cairo Population using ARMA Model. The Egyptian International Journal of Engineering Sciences and Technology, 19(EIJEST, Vol. 19, 2016), 346-352.