Forensic Analysis of Venezuelan Elections during the Chávez Presidency

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dc.contributor.author Jiménez, Raúl
dc.contributor.author Hidalgo Trenado, Manuel
dc.coverage.spatial the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela (VE)
dc.coverage.temporal start=1998; end=2013;
dc.date.accessioned 2015-02-24T16:33:37Z
dc.date.accessioned 2015-02-26T12:35:35Z
dc.date.available 2015-02-26T12:35:35Z
dc.date.issued 2014-06-27
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation Jiménez, R.; Hidalgo, M. (2014) Forensic Analysis of Venezuelan Elections during the Chávez Presidency. PLoS ONE 9(6): e100884. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100884
dc.identifier.issn 1932-6203
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10016/20095
dc.description Contiene adjunto ficheros de datos.
dc.description.abstract Hugo Chavez dominated the Venezuelan electoral landscape since his first presidential victory in 1998 until his death in 2013. Nobody doubts that he always received considerable voter support in the numerous elections held during his mandate. However, the integrity of the electoral system has come into question since the 2004 Presidential Recall Referendum. From then on, different sectors of society have systematically alleged electoral irregularities or biases in favor of the incumbent party. We have carried out a thorough forensic analysis of the national-level Venezuelan electoral processes held during the 1998-2012 period to assess these complaints. The second-digit Benford's law and two statistical models of vote distributions, recently introduced in the literature, are reviewed and used in our case study. In addition, we discuss a new method to detect irregular variations in the electoral roll. The outputs obtained from these election forensic tools are examined taking into account the substantive context of the elections and referenda under study. Thus, we reach two main conclusions. Firstly, all the tools uncover anomalous statistical patterns, which are consistent with election fraud from 2004 onwards. Although our results are not a concluding proof of fraud, they signal the Recall Referendum as a turning point in the integrity of the Venezuelan elections. Secondly, our analysis calls into question the reliability of the electoral register since 2004. In particular, we found irregular variations in the electoral roll that were decisive in winning the 50% majority in the 2004 Referendum and in the 2012 Presidential Elections.
dc.description.sponsorship This work was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (Projects ECO2011-25706 and CSO2012-35852).
dc.format.extent 18
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Plos
dc.rights © 2014 Jiménez, Hidalgo
dc.rights Atribución 3.0 España
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
dc.source http://www.cne.gov.ve/web/index.php
dc.subject.other Recall referendum
dc.subject.other Benfords law
dc.subject.other Fraud
dc.subject.other Democracy
dc.subject.other Behavior
dc.subject.other Chávez Frías, Hugo
dc.subject.other Venezuela
dc.title Forensic Analysis of Venezuelan Elections during the Chávez Presidency
dc.type article
dc.type Dataset
dc.type.review PeerReviewed
dc.relation.publisherversion http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0100884
dc.subject.eciencia Estadística
dc.subject.eciencia Política
dc.identifier.doi 10.1371/journal.pone.0100884
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. ECO2011-25706
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. CSO2012-35852
dc.type.version publishedVersion
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage 1
dc.identifier.publicationissue 6
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage 18
dc.identifier.publicationtitle PloS one
dc.identifier.publicationvolume 9
dc.identifier.uxxi AR/0000015406
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