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A bayesian model of covid-19 cases based on the gompertz curve

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dc.affiliation.institutoUC3M. Instituto UC3M - Santander de Big Dataes
dc.contributor.authorBerihuete, Ángel
dc.contributor.authorSánchez Sánchez , Marta
dc.contributor.authorSuárez-Llorens, Alfonso
dc.contributor.funderMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)es
dc.date.accessioned2021-09-23T08:20:02Z
dc.date.available2021-09-23T08:20:02Z
dc.date.issued2021-02-01
dc.descriptionThis article belongs to the Special Issue Stochastic Models with Applicationsen
dc.description.abstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for finding mathematical models to forecast the evolution of the contagious disease and evaluate the success of particular policies in reducing infections. In this work, we perform Bayesian inference for a non-homogeneous Poisson process with an intensity function based on the Gompertz curve. We discuss the prior distribution of the parameter and we generate samples from the posterior distribution by using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Finally, we illustrate our method analyzing real data associated with COVID-19 in a specific region located at the south of Spain.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis research was funded by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spain), under grant number MTM2017-89577-P, by the 2014-2020 ERDF Operational Programme and by the Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad (Junta de Andalucía, Spain), under grant: FEDER-UCA18-107519.en
dc.format.extent16
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationBerihuete, N., Sánchez-Sánchez, M. & Suárez-Llorens, A. (2021). A Bayesian Model of COVID-19 Cases Based on the Gompertz Curve. Mathematics, 9(3), 228.en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.3390/math9030228
dc.identifier.issn2227-7390
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage228
dc.identifier.publicationissue3
dc.identifier.publicationtitleMathematicsen
dc.identifier.publicationvolume9
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/33307
dc.identifier.uxxiAR/0000028264
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherMDPIen
dc.relation.projectIDGobierno de España. MTM2017-89577-Pes
dc.rights© 2021 by the authors.en
dc.rightsAtribución 3.0 España*
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/*
dc.subject.ecienciaMatemáticases
dc.subject.otherBayesian inferenceen
dc.subject.otherGompertz curveen
dc.subject.otherInverse gaussianen
dc.subject.otherModeling epidemicsen
dc.subject.otherNon-homogeneous poisson processen
dc.titleA bayesian model of covid-19 cases based on the gompertz curveen
dc.typeresearch article*
dc.type.hasVersionVoR*
dspace.entity.typePublication
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