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Surprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential elections

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Economíaes
dc.contributor.authorCasas, Agustin
dc.contributor.authorFawaz, Yarine
dc.contributor.authorTrindade, Andre
dc.contributor.editorUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economíaes
dc.date.accessioned2014-07-25T13:49:46Z
dc.date.available2014-07-25T13:49:46Z
dc.date.issued2014-07
dc.description.abstractUsing the daily trade of futures from the prediction markets site Intrade, we pin down the effect of printed newspapers endorsements (announcement of an explicit support for a political candidate) on the candidates' likelihood of winning. It is established that unexpected endorsements have a large impact on voters' behavior. However, we show that this effect is only true when the endorsement is a coherent one: if a newspaper that praises conservative (liberal) policies endorses a candidate with liberal (conservative) ideas, the endorsement does not impact the candidate's probability of winning, as it is regarded as incoherent. Our measure for coherence comes from Gentzkow and Shapiro (2005), but we also use Ansolabehere and Snyder (2004)'s \propensity to endorse Democrats" to show that a surprise endorsement has a large and potentially tipping effect in a tied contesten
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.issn2340-5031es
dc.identifier.repecwe1416
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/19205
dc.identifier.uxxiDT/0000001241es
dc.language.isoenges
dc.relation.ispartofseriesUC3M Working papers Economicsen
dc.relation.ispartofseries14-16es
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España*
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/*
dc.subject.ecienciaEconomíaen
dc.subject.jelL82
dc.subject.jelD7
dc.titleSurprise me if you can: influence of newspaper endorsements in US Presidential electionsen
dc.typeworking paper*
dc.type.hasVersionSMUR*
dspace.entity.typePublication
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