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On the importance of the probabilistic model in identifying the most decisive game in a tournament

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Estadísticaes
dc.contributor.authorCorona, Francisco
dc.contributor.authorTena Horrillo, Juan de Dios
dc.contributor.authorWiper, Michael Peter
dc.contributor.editorUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadísticaes
dc.date.accessioned2016-07-05T15:17:28Z
dc.date.available2016-07-05T15:17:28Z
dc.date.issued2015-06-01es
dc.description.abstractIdentifying the decisive matches in international football tournaments is of great relevance for a variety of decision makers such as organizers, team coaches and/or media managers. This paper addresses this issue by analyzing the role of the statistical approach used to estimate the outcome of the game on the identification of decisive matches on international tournaments for national football teams. We extend the measure of decisiveness proposed by Geenens (2014) in order to allow to predict or evaluate the decisive matches before, during and after a particular game on the tournament. Using information from the 2014 FIFA World Cup, our results suggest that Poisson and kernel regressions significantly outperform the forecasts of ordered probit models. Moreover, we find that although the identification of the most decisive matches is independent of the model considered, the identification of other key matches is model dependent. We also apply this methodology to identify the favorite teams and to predict the most decisive matches in 2015 Copa America before the start of the competition. Furthermore, we compare our forecast approach with respect to the original measure during the knockout stage.en
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.identifier.issn2387-0303es
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/21174
dc.identifier.uxxiDT/0000001381es
dc.language.isoenges
dc.relation.ispartofseriesUC3M Working papers. Statistics and Econometricses
dc.relation.ispartofseries15-14es
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España*
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/*
dc.subject.otherDecisive gameen
dc.subject.otherEntropyen
dc.subject.otherPoisson modelen
dc.subject.otherKernel regressionen
dc.subject.otherOrdered probit modelen
dc.titleOn the importance of the probabilistic model in identifying the most decisive game in a tournamentes
dc.typeworking paper*
dc.type.hasVersionSMUR*
dspace.entity.typePublication
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