Publication:
Forecasting China's mortality

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Análisis Sociales
dc.contributor.authorJiang, Quanbao
dc.contributor.authorSong, Wei
dc.contributor.authorSánchez Barricarte, Jesús Javier
dc.contributor.funderMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)es
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-24T15:38:21Z
dc.date.available2022-05-24T15:38:21Z
dc.date.issued2013-12-01
dc.description.abstractChina's life expectancy at birth is currently being debated; the 2010 census data may exaggerate the figure and its rate of increase. In this paper, with an extension of the Lee-Carter method for limited data, we use China's 1982, 1990 and 2000 censuses to forecast the mortality pattern and life expectancy for the 2000 to 2030 period. We find that the annual increase in life expectancy from 2000 to 2030 is predicted to be 0.18 years for males, and 0.23 years for females, and the infant mortality rate is predicted to decline to 10.39‰ in 2030 for males, and to 20.32‰ for females.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work is jointly supported by the 985-3 Project of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)en
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationJiang, Q., Song, W., & Sánchez-Barricarte, J.J. (2013). Forecasting China's Mortality. Population Review, 52(2), pp. 87-98en
dc.identifier.issn0032-471X
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage87es
dc.identifier.publicationissue2es
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage98es
dc.identifier.publicationtitlePopulation Review (Population Review)en
dc.identifier.publicationvolume52es
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/34893
dc.identifier.uxxiAR/0000015364
dc.language.isoenges
dc.publisherSociological Demography Pressen
dc.relation.projectIDGobierno de España. CSO2012-31206es
dc.rights© Population Review Publications Limited.en
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessen
dc.subject.ecienciaSociologíaes
dc.subject.otherLee-Carter methoden
dc.subject.otherLife expectancy at birthen
dc.subject.otherInfant mortality tateen
dc.subject.otherForecastingen
dc.titleForecasting China's mortalityen
dc.typeresearch article*
dc.type.hasVersionAM*
dspace.entity.typePublication
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