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Modelling intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Estadísticaes
dc.affiliation.grupoinvUC3M. Grupo de Investigación: Predicción y Análisis Macroeconómico y Financieroes
dc.contributor.authorGonzález-Rivera, Gloria
dc.contributor.authorRodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir
dc.contributor.authorRuiz Ortega, Esther
dc.contributor.editorUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadísticaes
dc.date.accessioned2023-07-24T11:06:04Z
dc.date.available2023-07-24T11:06:04Z
dc.date.issued2023-07-24
dc.description.abstractIn this paper, we propose to model intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed at a given location by fitting unobserved component models to bivariate systems of center and log-range temperatures. In doing so, the center and logrange temperature are decomposed into potentially stochastic trends, seasonal and transitory components. We contribute to the debate on whether the trend and seasonal components are better represented by stochastic or deterministic components. The methodology is implemented to intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed monthly in four locations in the Iberian Peninsula, namely, Barcelona, Coruña, Madrid and Seville. We show that, at each location, the center temperature can be represented by a smooth integrated random walk with time-varying slope while the log-range seems to be better represented by a stochastic level. We also show that center and log-range temperature are unrelated. The methodology is then extended to model simultaneously minimum/maximum temperatures observed at several locations. We fit a multi-level dynamic factor model to extract potential commonalities among center (log-range) temperature while also allowing for heterogeneity in different areas. The model is fitted to intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed at a large number of locations in the Iberian Peninsula.en
dc.description.sponsorshipFinancial Supportfrom\laCaixa"Foundation,grantLCF/PR/SR20/52550012-Climate change and economic challenges for the Spanish society, is gratefully acknowledged. The third author also acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Government grant PID2019-108079GBC21/AIE/10.13039/501100011033 (MINECO/FEDER).The suppor tof Jouni Helske with some of the codes used in this paper is also gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful to participants at the 69th International Symposium of Forecasters (July, 2022),Rome-Waseda Time Series Symposium (October, 2022) and 16th International Conference, Computational and Financial Econometrics (December, 2022).Any remaining errors are obviously our responsibility.en
dc.identifier.issn2387-0303es
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/37968
dc.identifier.uxxiDT/0000002084es
dc.language.isoenges
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorking paper Statistics and Econometricsen
dc.relation.ispartofseries23-08es
dc.relation.projectIDGobierno de España. PID2019-108079GB-C21es
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/*
dc.subject.ecienciaEstadísticaes
dc.subject.jelC22
dc.subject.jelC32
dc.subject.jelC53
dc.subject.jelQ54
dc.subject.otherClimate Changeen
dc.subject.otherDynamic Factor Modelsen
dc.subject.otherInterval Valued Time Seriesen
dc.subject.otherState Space Modelsen
dc.titleModelling intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsulaen
dc.typeworking paper*
dspace.entity.typePublication
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