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Score-driven threshold ice-age models: benchmark models for long-run climate forecasts

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Economíaes
dc.contributor.authorBlazsek, Szabolcs
dc.contributor.authorEscribano, Álvaro
dc.contributor.editorUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economíaes
dc.date.accessioned2022-05-10T18:25:19Z
dc.date.available2022-05-10T18:25:19Z
dc.date.issued2022-05-10
dc.description.abstractClimate variables are known to be subject to abrupt changes when some threshold levels are surpassed. We use data for the last 798,000 years on global ice volume (Ice), atmospheric carbon dioxide level (CO2), and Antarctic land surface temperature (Temp) to model and measure those longrun nonlinear climate effects. The climate variables have very long and asymmetric cycles, created by periods of upward trends, followed by periods of downward trends driven by exogenous orbital variables. The exogenous orbital variables considered by the Milankovitch cycles are eccentricity of Earth's orbit, obliquity, and precession of the equinox. We show that our new score-driven threshold ice-age models improve the statistical inference and forecasting performance of competing ice-age models from the literature. The drawback of using our 1,000-year frequency observations, is that we cannot measure the nonlinear climate effects of humanity created during the last 250 years, which are known to have generated abrupt structural changes in the Earth's climate, due to unprecedented high levels of CO2 and Temp, and low levels of Ice volume. On the other hand, the advantage of using low-frequency data is that they allow us to obtain long-run forecasts on what would have occurred if humanity had not burned fossil fuels since the start of the Industrial Revolution. These long-run forecasts can serve as benchmarks for the long-run evaluation of the impact of humanity on climate variables. Without the impact of humanity on climate, we predict the existence of turning points in the evolution of the three climate variables for the next 5,000 years: an upward trend in global ice volume, and downward trends in atmospheric CO2 level and Antarctic land surface temperature.en
dc.identifier.issn2340-5031es
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/34757
dc.identifier.uxxiDT/0000001996es
dc.language.isoengen
dc.relation.ispartofseriesWorking paper. Economicsen
dc.relation.ispartofseries22-05
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/*
dc.subject.ecienciaEconomíaes
dc.subject.jelC32
dc.subject.jelC38
dc.subject.jelC51
dc.subject.jelC52
dc.subject.jelC53
dc.subject.jelQ54
dc.subject.otherClimate Changeen
dc.subject.otherIce-Agesen
dc.subject.otherGlobal Ice Volumeen
dc.subject.otherAtmospheric Co2 Levelen
dc.subject.otherAntarctic Land Surface Temperatureen
dc.subject.otherDynamic Conditional Score Modelsen
dc.subject.otherGeneralized Autoregressive Score Modelsen
dc.titleScore-driven threshold ice-age models: benchmark models for long-run climate forecastsen
dc.typeworking paper*
dspace.entity.typePublication
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