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Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Estadísticaes
dc.affiliation.grupoinvUC3M. Grupo de Investigación: Técnicas no Paramétricas y de Computación Intensiva en Estadísticaes
dc.affiliation.institutoUC3M. Instituto UC3M - Santander de Big Dataes
dc.contributor.authorSarhadi, Ali
dc.contributor.authorAusín Olivera, María Concepción
dc.contributor.authorWiper, Michael Peter
dc.contributor.authorTouma, Danielle
dc.contributor.authorDiffenbaugh, Noah S
dc.date.accessioned2024-01-09T11:19:23Z
dc.date.available2024-01-09T11:19:23Z
dc.date.issued2018-11-28
dc.description.abstractWe present a framework for quantifying the spatial and temporal co-occurrence of climate stresses in a nonstationary climate. We find that, globally, anthropogenic climate forcing has doubled the joint probability of years that are both warm and dry in the same location (relative to the 1961-1990 baseline). In addition, the joint probability that key crop and pasture regions simultaneously experience severely warm conditions in conjunction with dry years has also increased, including high statistical confidence that human influence has increased the probability of previously unprecedented co-occurring combinations. Further, we find that ambitious emissions mitigation, such as that in the United Nations Paris Agreement, substantially curbs increases in the probability that extremely hot years co-occur with low precipitation simultaneously in multiple regions. Our methodology can be applied to other climate variables, providing critical insight for a number of sectors that are accustomed to deploying resources based on historical probabilities.en
dc.format.extent10es
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationSarhadi, A., Ausín, M. C., Wiper, M. P., Touma, D., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2018). Multidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: Joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditions. Science Advances 4(11).es
dc.identifier.doi10.1126/sciadv.aau3487
dc.identifier.issn2375-2548
dc.identifier.publicationissue11es
dc.identifier.publicationtitleScience Advancesen
dc.identifier.publicationvolume4es
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/39179
dc.identifier.uxxiAR/0000022577
dc.language.isoengen
dc.publisherAmerican Association for the Advancement of Scienceen
dc.rights© 2018 The Authors.es
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial 3.0 España*
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/es/*
dc.subject.ecienciaEstadísticaes
dc.subject.otherRandom-variablesen
dc.subject.otherCopulaen
dc.subject.otherVolatilityen
dc.titleMultidimensional risk in a nonstationary climate: joint probability of increasingly severe warm and dry conditionsen
dc.typeresearch articleen
dspace.entity.typePublication
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