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Evaluation of vaccination strategies for the metropolitan area of Madrid via agent-based simulation

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Informáticaes
dc.affiliation.grupoinvUC3M. Grupo de Investigación: Arquitectura de Computadores, Comunicaciones y Sistemases
dc.contributor.authorExpósito Singh, David
dc.contributor.authorOmedo Lucerón, Carmen
dc.contributor.authorLimia Sánchez, Aurora
dc.contributor.authorGuzmán Merino, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorDuran Gonzalez, Christian
dc.contributor.authorDelgado Sanz, Concepción
dc.contributor.authorGómez Barroso, Diana
dc.contributor.authorCarretero Pérez, Jesús
dc.contributor.authorMarinescu, María Cristina
dc.contributor.funderComunidad de Madrides
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Commissionen
dc.contributor.funderUniversidad Carlos III de Madrides
dc.date.accessioned2023-09-13T11:04:45Z
dc.date.available2023-09-13T11:04:45Z
dc.date.issued2022-12-09
dc.description.abstractObjective We analyse the impact of different vaccination strategies on the propagation of COVID-19 within the Madrid metropolitan area, starting on 27 December 2020 and ending in Summer of 2021. Materials and methods The predictions are based on simulation using EpiGraph, an agent-based COVID-19 simulator. We first summarise the different models implemented in the simulator, then provide a comprehensive description of the vaccination model and define different vaccination strategies. The simulator—including the vaccination model—is validated by comparing its results with real data from the metropolitan area of Madrid during the third COVID-19 wave. This work considers different COVID-19 propagation scenarios for a simulated population of about 5 million. Results The main result shows that the best strategy is to vaccinate first the elderly with the two doses spaced 56 days apart; this approach reduces the final infection rate by an additional 6% and the number of deaths by an additional 3% with respect to vaccinating first the elderly at the interval recommended by the vaccine producer. The reason is the increase in the number of vaccinated individuals at any time during the simulation. Conclusion The existing level of detail and maturity of EpiGraph allowed us to evaluate complex scenarios and thus use it successfully to help guide the strategy for the COVID-19 vaccination campaign of the Spanish health authorities.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis work has been partially funded by the agreement between the Community of Madrid and the Carlos III University of Madrid for the funding of research projects on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 disease, project name 'Multi-source and multi-method prediction to support COVID-19 policy decision making', which was supported with REACT-EU funds from the European regional development fund 'a way of making Europe' (2020/00692/003) and the European High-Performance Computing Joint Undertaking (JU) under the ADMIRE project (grant agreement No 956748). We have also used the Spanish Supercomputing Network (RES) under the grant BCV-2021-1-0011. The role of all study sponsors was limited to financial support.en
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationSingh DE, Olmedo Luceron C, Limia Sanchez A, et alEvaluation of vaccination strategies for the metropolitan area of Madrid via agent-based simulationBMJ Open 2022;12:e065937. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065937en
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2022-065937
dc.identifier.issn2044-6055
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage1
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage8
dc.identifier.publicationtitleBMJ Openen
dc.identifier.publicationvolume12
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/38316
dc.identifier.uxxiAR/0000032150
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherBMJ Journalsen
dc.relation.projectIDinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/956748/ADMIRE
dc.relation.projectIDComunidad de Madrid.es
dc.rights© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2022en
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial 3.0 España
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/es/
dc.subject.ecienciaInformáticaes
dc.titleEvaluation of vaccination strategies for the metropolitan area of Madrid via agent-based simulationen
dc.typeresearch article*
dc.type.hasVersionVoR*
dspace.entity.typePublication
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