Robust Optimal Trajectory Planning under Uncertain Winds and Convective Risk

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The existence of significant uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction represent a major challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations concept. Weather can be considered as one of the most relevant sources of uncertainty. Understanding and managing the impact of these uncertainties is necessary in order to increase the predictability of the ATM system. We present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning in which weather is assumed to be the unique source of uncertainty. State-of-the-art forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems are used as input data for the wind field and to calculate convective risk. The term convective area is defined here as an area within which individual convective storms may develop, i.e., a necessary (though not sufficient) condition. An ad-hoc robustoptimal control methodology is presented. A set of Pareto-optimal trajectories is obtained for different preferences between predictability, convective risk and average efficiency.
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González-Arribas, D., Soler, M., Sanjurjo-Rivo, M., García-Heras, J., Sacher, D., Gelhardt, U., Lang, J., Hauf, T., Simarro, J. (2017). Robust Optimal Trajectory Planning under Uncertain Winds and Convective Risk. EIWAC. The ENRI International Workshop on ATM/CNS. 14th -16th November, 2017, Tokyo, Japan