Wind-Based Robust Trajectory Optimization using Meteorological Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts

González Arribas, Daniel; Soler Arnedo, Manuel Fernando; Sanjurjo Rivo, Manuel

Publication:
Wind-Based Robust Trajectory Optimization using Meteorological Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts

dc.affiliation.dpto	UC3M. Departamento de Ingeniería Aeroespacial	es
dc.affiliation.grupoinv	UC3M. Grupo de Investigación: Ingeniería Aeroespacial	es
dc.contributor.author	González Arribas, Daniel
dc.contributor.author	Soler Arnedo, Manuel Fernando
dc.contributor.author	Sanjurjo Rivo, Manuel
dc.date.accessioned	2016-12-02T09:31:11Z
dc.date.available	2016-12-02T09:31:11Z
dc.date.issued	2016-11-08
dc.description.abstract	A major challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations is the existence of significant uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction. In particular, weather uncertainty has been acknowledged as one of the most (if not the most) relevant ones. In the present paper we present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning at the pre-tactical level. The main goal is to plan trajectories that are efficient, yet predictable. State-of-the-art forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems are used as input data for the wind field, which we assume to be the unique source of uncertainty. We develop an ad-hoc optimal control methodology to solve trajectory planning problems considering uncertainty in wind fields. A set of Paretooptimal trajectories is obtained for different preferences between predictability and average efficiency; in particular, we present and discuss results for the minimum average fuel trajectory and the most predictable trajectory, including the trade-off between fuel consumption and time dispersion. We show how uncertainty can be quantified and reduced by proposing alternative trajectories.	en
dc.description.sponsorship	This work has been partially supported by project TBO-MET project (https://tbometh2020. com/), which has received funding from the SESAR JU under grant agreement No 699294 under European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. This work is also partially supported by the Spanish Government through Project entitled Analysis and optimisation of aircraft trajectories under the effects of meteorological uncertainty (TRA2014-58413-C2-2-R). The project has been funded under RD&I actions of Programa Estatal de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación Orientada a los Retos de la Sociedad (call 2014).	en
dc.description.sponsorship	European Commission	en
dc.format.extent	8
dc.format.mimetype	application/pdf
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation	Proceedings of SESAR Innovation Days 2016 (SIDs'16)	en
dc.identifier.isbn	0770-1268
dc.identifier.publicationtitle	Schaefer, D. (Ed.). Proceedings of SESAR Innovation Days 2016 (SIDs'16)	en
dc.identifier.uri	https://hdl.handle.net/10016/23925
dc.identifier.uxxi	CC/0000024471
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	Eurocontrol
dc.relation.eventdate	08-10 november 2016	en
dc.relation.eventplace	Países Bajos	es
dc.relation.eventtitle	The Sixth SESAR Innovation Days	en
dc.relation.projectID	info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/699294
dc.relation.projectID	Gobierno de España. TRA2014-58413-C2-2-R	es
dc.rights	© Sesar Innovation Days	en
dc.rights	Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.rights.accessRights	open access
dc.rights.uri	http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.eciencia	Aeronáutica	es
dc.title	Wind-Based Robust Trajectory Optimization using Meteorological Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts	en
dc.type	conference proceedings	*
dc.type.hasVersion	VoR	*
dspace.entity.type	Publication