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The asymmetry puzzle: the supply chain disruptions news shocks effects on oil prices and inflation

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dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Economíaes
dc.contributor.authorPuch González, Luis Antonio
dc.contributor.authorGuinea, Laurentiu
dc.contributor.authorRuiz, Jesús
dc.contributor.editorUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economíaes
dc.contributor.funderMinisterio de Economía y Competitividad (España)es
dc.contributor.funderEuropean Commission
dc.date.accessioned2024-03-12T16:27:11Z
dc.date.available2024-03-12T16:27:11Z
dc.date.issued2024-02-29
dc.description.abstractThis paper investigates the asymmetrical effects of supply chain disruptions on oil prices and inflation. To this purpose, we identify anticipated (news) shocks associated to the global supply chain. Then we estimate the effects of these shocks on oil prices and inflation in the US. We allow 'escalating' (restrictive) and 'deescalating' (expansionary) supply chain news shocks tohave differing effect sizes. Our empirical findings reveal that anticipated supply chain disruptions exert a substantial and statistically significant influence on both oil prices and inflation. We uncover a significant asymmetry in these effects: 'escalating news' shocks exhibit a markedly stronger and more persistent impact compared to 'deescalating news' shocks. Consequently, the oil price is less sensitive to an alleviation of supply chain strain than to an exacerbation. Our results can be rationalized by a small open economy model which is used to assess the validity of our empirical approach. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanisms governing thetransmission of supply chain news shocks in the model align closely with observed empirical patterns. Failing to account for this asymmetry could lead to misjudgments regarding the repercussions of supply chain pressures.en
dc.description.sponsorshipWe thank the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (grants PID2019-107161GB-C32 and TED2021- 129891B-I00, financed by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and the European Union NextGenerationEU/PRTR) for financial support.en
dc.format.extent42
dc.identifier.issn2340-5031
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/43758
dc.identifier.uxxiDT/0000002111
dc.language.isoeng
dc.relation.ispartofseriesUC3M Working papers. Economicsen
dc.relation.ispartofseries24-03
dc.relation.projectIDGobierno de España. PID2019-107161GB-C32es
dc.relation.projectIDGobierno de España. TED2021- 129891B-I00es
dc.rightsAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 Españaen
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accessen
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.ecienciaEconomíaes
dc.subject.jelE2
dc.subject.jelE6
dc.subject.jelE32
dc.subject.jelE44
dc.subject.jelQ42
dc.subject.jelQ43
dc.subject.jelQ58
dc.subject.otherNews shocksen
dc.subject.otherInflationen
dc.subject.otherOil pricesen
dc.subject.otherSupply chain disruptionen
dc.subject.otherExpectationsen
dc.titleThe asymmetry puzzle: the supply chain disruptions news shocks effects on oil prices and inflationen
dc.typeworking paper*
dc.type.hasVersionSMUR*
dspace.entity.typePublicationen
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationbefb81fe-9c05-4fbb-816f-fd1c7bd4aefa
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverybefb81fe-9c05-4fbb-816f-fd1c7bd4aefa
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