Publication: Forecasting from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator
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2007-12
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Abstract
This paper discusses the building process and models used by Red Eléctrica de España
(REE), the Spanish system operator, in short-term electricity load forecasting. REE's
forecasting system consists of one daily model and 24 hourly models with a common
structure. There are two types of forecasts of special interest to REE, several days ahead
predictions for daily data and one day ahead hourly forecasts. Accordingly, forecast
accuracy is assessed in terms of their errors. For doing so we analyze historical, real
time forecasting errors for daily and hourly data for the year 2006, and report
forecasting performance by day of the week, time of the year and type of day. Other
aspects of the prediction problem, like the influence of the errors in predicting
temperature on forecasting the load several days ahead, or the need for an adequate
treatment of special days, are also investigated.
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Energy forecasting, Hourly and daily models, Time series, Forecasting practice