Boberg-Fazlic, NinaLampe, MarkusPedersen, Maja UhreSharp, PaulUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias SocialesUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid2022-11-282022-11-282020-07-032341-2542https://hdl.handle.net/10016/36118The impact of COVID-19 on recent tendencies towards international isolationism has been much speculated on but remains to be seen. We suggest that valuable evidence can be gleaned from the "Spanish" flu of 1918-20. It is well-known that the world fell into a protectionist spiral following the First World War, but scholars have almost exclusively ignored the impact of the pandemic. We employ a difference-in-differences strategy on data for Europe and find that excess deaths had a significant impact on trade policy, independent of the war. A one standard deviation increase in excess deaths during the outbreak implied 0.022 percentage points higher tariffs subsequently, corresponding to an increase of one third of a standard deviation in tariffs. Health policy should aim to avoid the experience of the interwar period and consider the international macroeconomic impact of measures (not) taken.engAtribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 EspañaPandemicsProtectionismTradeworking paperF13I19N74DT/0000001773