Cartea, Álvaro2011-09-162011-09-162009-02Applied Mathematical Finance, 2009, v 16, n. 2, p. 103-1221350-486Xhttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/12104We present a spot price model for wholesale electricity prices which incorporates forward looking information that is available to all market players. We focus on information that measures the extent to which the capacity of the England and Wales generation park will be constrained over the next 52 weeks. We propose a measure of "tight market conditions", based on capacity constraints, which identifies the weeks of the year when price spikes are more likely to occur. We show that the incorporation of this type of forward looking information, not uncommon in electricity markets, improves the modelling of spikes (timing and magnitude) and the different speeds of mean reversionapplication/pdfeng©Taylor & FrancisCapacity constraintsMean reversionElectricity indicated demandElectricity indicated generationRegimen switching modelresearch articleEmpresa10.1080/13504860802351164open access1032122Applied Mathematical Finance16