RT Journal Article
T1 Trends in distributional characteristics: existence of global warming
A1 Gadea Rivas, María Dolores
A1 Gonzalo, Jesús
AB What type of global warming exists? This study introduces a novel methodologyto answer this question, which is the starting point for all issues related toclimate change analyses. Global warming is defined as an increasing trend incertain distributional characteristics (moments, quantiles, etc.) of global temperatures,in addition to simply examining the average values. Temperaturesare viewed as a functional stochastic process from which we obtain distributionalcharacteristics as time series objects. Here, we present a simple robusttrend test and prove that it is able to detect the existence of an unknown trendcomponent (deterministic or stochastic) in these characteristics. Applying thistrend test to daily temperatures in Central England (for the period 1772-2017)and to global cross-sectional temperatures (1880-2015), we obtain the samestrong conclusions: (i) there is an increasing trend in all distributional characteristics(time series and cross-sectional), and this trend is larger in the lowerquantiles than it is in the mean, median, and upper quantiles; (ii) there is anegative trend in the characteristics that measure dispersion (i.e., lower temperaturesapproach the median faster than higher temperatures do). This typeof global warming has more serious consequences than those found by analyzingonly the average.
PB Elsevier
SN 0304-4076
YR 2020
FD 2020-01-01
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10016/35402
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10016/35402
LA eng
DS e-Archivo
RD 1 sept. 2024