RT Journal Article
T1 Forecasting China's mortality
A1 Jiang, Quanbao
A1 Song, Wei
A1 Sánchez Barricarte, Jesús Javier
AB China's life expectancy at birth is currently being debated; the 2010 census data may exaggerate the figure and its rate of increase. In this paper, with an extension of the Lee-Carter method for limited data, we use China's 1982, 1990 and 2000 censuses to forecast the mortality pattern and life expectancy for the 2000 to 2030 period. We find that the annual increase in life expectancy from 2000 to 2030 is predicted to be 0.18 years for males, and 0.23 years for females, and the infant mortality rate is predicted to decline to 10.39‰ in 2030 for males, and to 20.32‰ for females.
PB Sociological Demography Press
SN 0032-471X
YR 2013
FD 2013-12-01
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10016/34893
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10016/34893
LA eng
NO This work is jointly supported by the 985-3 Project of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the Spanish Ministry ofEconomy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)
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RD 1 sept. 2024