RT Generic
T1 Modelling intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula
A1 González-Rivera, Gloria
A1 Rodríguez Caballero, Carlos Vladimir
A1 Ruiz Ortega, Esther
A2 Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística, 
AB In this paper, we propose to model intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed at a given location by fitting unobserved component models to bivariate systems of center and log-range temperatures. In doing so, the center and logrange temperature are decomposed into potentially stochastic trends, seasonal and transitory components. We contribute to the debate on whether the trend and seasonal components are better represented by stochastic or deterministic components. The methodology is implemented to intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed monthly in four locations in the Iberian Peninsula, namely, Barcelona, Coruña, Madrid and Seville. We show that, at each location, the center temperature can be represented by a smooth integrated random walk with time-varying slope while the log-range seems to be better represented by a stochastic level. We also show that center and log-range temperature are unrelated. The methodology is then extended to model simultaneously minimum/maximum temperatures observed at several locations. We fit a multi-level dynamic factor model to extract potential commonalities among center (log-range) temperature while also allowing for heterogeneity in different areas. The model is fitted to intervals of minimum/maximum temperatures observed at a large number of locations in the Iberian Peninsula.
SN 2387-0303
YR 2023
FD 2023-07-24
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10016/37968
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10016/37968
LA eng
NO Financial Supportfrom\laCaixa"Foundation,grantLCF/PR/SR20/52550012-Climate changeand economic challenges for the Spanish society, is gratefully acknowledged. The third author also acknowledges  financial support from the Spanish Government grant PID2019-108079GBC21/AIE/10.13039/501100011033 (MINECO/FEDER).The suppor tof Jouni Helske withsome of the codes used in this paper is also gratefully acknowledged. We are also grateful to participants at the 69th International Symposium of Forecasters (July, 2022),Rome-Waseda Time Series Symposium (October, 2022) and 16th International Conference, Computational and Financial Econometrics(December, 2022).Any remaining errors are obviously our responsibility.
DS e-Archivo
RD 17 jun. 2024