RT Journal Article
T1 From green to ripe: Dynamics of peacemaking in Colombia (1998-2016)
A1 Hidalgo Trenado, Manuel
A1 Medina Sierra, Luis Fernando
A1 Rios, Jerónimo
AB Armed conflict in Colombia with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-EP) was only settled after 50 years and several attempts at negotiations. This sequence of events fits the pattern of "conflict ripeness" first proposed by William Zartman. But using a successful settlement as a way to determine ripeness can be tautological. To address this issue, we develop a formal model to identify the level of ripeness at which a conflict is settled. In an overripe conflict both parties end up spending resources in a military build-up that is out of proportion with what they obtain in the final settlement. We show that such overripeness is exacerbated by the access to resources and by the factional heterogeneity within the two sides. We illustrate these dynamics by looking in detail at the attempts at negotiation between Colombia's government and the FARC-EP. To that end, we combine statistical data, some previously undisclosed, and interviews with some key participants.
PB SAGE Publications
SN 1043-4631
YR 2021
FD 2021-08-01
LK http://hdl.handle.net/10016/35390
UL http://hdl.handle.net/10016/35390
LA eng
NO This work was supported by Comunidad de Madrid and Complutense University of Madrid. Attraction of the Research Talent 2018 Program. Grant: 2018-T2/SOC-10508.
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