RT Generic
T1 Trends in temperature data: micro-foundations of their nature
A1 Gadea Rivas, María Dolores
A1 Gonzalo, Jesús
A1 Ramos, Andrey
A2 Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía, 
AB Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or is a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact and forecasting studies of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the nature of trends in GAT building on the analysis of individual temperature grids. Our 'micro-founded' evidence suggests that GAT is stationary around a non-linear deterministic trend in the form of a linear function with a one-period structural break. This break can beattributed to a combination of individual grid breaks and the standard aggregation method under acceleration in global warming. We illustrate our findings using simulations.
SN 2340-5031
YR 2023
FD 2023-12-05
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10016/39045
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10016/39045
LA eng
DS e-Archivo
RD 1 sept. 2024