RT Generic
T1 Combining benchmarking and chain-linking for short-term regional forecasting
A1 Cuevas Rumín, Ángel
A1 Quilis, Enrique M.
A1 Espasa, Antoni
A2 Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística, 
AB In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate and forecast the GDP of the differentregions of a country, providing quarterly profilespaper offers a new instrument for shortdegree of synchronicity among regional business cycles.Technically, we combine time series models with benchmaquarterly indicators and to estimate quarterly regional GDPs ensuring their temporal andtransversal consistency with the National Accounts data. The methodology addresses the issueof non-additivity taking into accountlinked volume indexes used by the National Accounts and provides an efficient combination ofstructural as well as short-term information.The methodology is illustrated by an application to thequarterly GDP estimates and forecasts at the regional level (i.e., with a minimum compilationdelay with respect to the national quarterly GDP)
YR 2011
FD 2011-12
LK https://hdl.handle.net/10016/12704
UL https://hdl.handle.net/10016/12704
LA eng
NO Antoni Espasa acknowledges financial support from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia project ECO2009-08100
DS e-Archivo
RD 27 jul. 2024