On the persistence of leadership or leapfrogging in international trade

Abstract

When two countries starting from different quality levels (reflecting different conditions on domestic market demands) open to trade, two possible equilibria arise. In the first, the quality leader maintains its position. In the second, leapfrogging occurs. However, the latter is possible only if the initial quality gap is not too wide. Futher, when the risk dominance criterion is used, only the former equilibrium is selected. These results suggest that initial conditions (such as domestic market size or home demand preferences) are important factors in determining relative competitiveness of firms in international markets.