Forecasting China's mortality

Jiang, Quanbao; Song, Wei; Sánchez Barricarte, Jesús Javier

dc.contributor.author	Jiang, Quanbao
dc.contributor.author	Song, Wei
dc.contributor.author	Sánchez Barricarte, Jesús Javier
dc.date.accessioned	2022-05-24T15:38:21Z
dc.date.available	2022-05-24T15:38:21Z
dc.date.issued	2013-12-01
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation	Jiang, Q., Song, W., & Sánchez-Barricarte, J.J. (2013). Forecasting China's Mortality. Population Review, 52(2), pp. 87-98
dc.identifier.issn	0032-471X
dc.identifier.uri	http://hdl.handle.net/10016/34893
dc.description.abstract	China's life expectancy at birth is currently being debated; the 2010 census data may exaggerate the figure and its rate of increase. In this paper, with an extension of the Lee-Carter method for limited data, we use China's 1982, 1990 and 2000 censuses to forecast the mortality pattern and life expectancy for the 2000 to 2030 period. We find that the annual increase in life expectancy from 2000 to 2030 is predicted to be 0.18 years for males, and 0.23 years for females, and the infant mortality rate is predicted to decline to 10.39‰ in 2030 for males, and to 20.32‰ for females.
dc.description.sponsorship	This work is jointly supported by the 985-3 Project of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)
dc.language.iso	eng
dc.publisher	Sociological Demography Press
dc.rights	© Population Review Publications Limited.
dc.subject.other	Lee-Carter method
dc.subject.other	Life expectancy at birth
dc.subject.other	Infant mortality tate
dc.subject.other	Forecasting
dc.title	Forecasting China's mortality
dc.type	article
dc.subject.eciencia	Sociología
dc.rights.accessRights	openAccess
dc.relation.projectID	Gobierno de España. CSO2012-31206
dc.type.version	acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage	87
dc.identifier.publicationissue	2
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage	98
dc.identifier.publicationtitle	Population Review (Population Review)
dc.identifier.publicationvolume	52
dc.identifier.uxxi	AR/0000015364
dc.contributor.funder	Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)