Forecasting China's mortality

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Show simple item record Jiang, Quanbao Song, Wei Sánchez Barricarte, Jesús Javier 2022-05-24T15:38:21Z 2022-05-24T15:38:21Z 2013-12-01
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation Jiang, Q., Song, W., & Sánchez-Barricarte, J.J. (2013). Forecasting China's Mortality. Population Review, 52(2), pp. 87-98
dc.identifier.issn 0032-471X
dc.description.abstract China's life expectancy at birth is currently being debated; the 2010 census data may exaggerate the figure and its rate of increase. In this paper, with an extension of the Lee-Carter method for limited data, we use China's 1982, 1990 and 2000 censuses to forecast the mortality pattern and life expectancy for the 2000 to 2030 period. We find that the annual increase in life expectancy from 2000 to 2030 is predicted to be 0.18 years for males, and 0.23 years for females, and the infant mortality rate is predicted to decline to 10.39‰ in 2030 for males, and to 20.32‰ for females.
dc.description.sponsorship This work is jointly supported by the 985-3 Project of Xi’an Jiaotong University and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (CSO2012-31206)
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Sociological Demography Press
dc.rights © Population Review Publications Limited.
dc.subject.other Lee-Carter method
dc.subject.other Life expectancy at birth
dc.subject.other Infant mortality tate
dc.subject.other Forecasting
dc.title Forecasting China's mortality
dc.type article
dc.subject.eciencia Sociología
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. CSO2012-31206
dc.type.version acceptedVersion
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage 87
dc.identifier.publicationissue 2
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage 98
dc.identifier.publicationtitle Population Review (Population Review)
dc.identifier.publicationvolume 52
dc.identifier.uxxi AR/0000015364
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
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