A bayesian-deep learning model for estimating covid-19 evolution in Spain

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dc.contributor.author Cabras, Stefano
dc.date.accessioned 2022-04-28T09:38:01Z
dc.date.available 2022-04-28T09:38:01Z
dc.date.issued 2021-11-01
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation Cabras, S. (2021). A Bayesian-Deep Learning Model for Estimating COVID-19 Evolution in Spain. Mathematics, 9(22), 2921.
dc.identifier.issn 2227-7390
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10016/34652
dc.description.abstract This work proposes a semi-parametric approach to estimate the evolution of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) in Spain. Considering the sequences of 14-day cumulative incidence of all Spanish regions, it combines modern Deep Learning (DL) techniques for analyzing sequences with the usual Bayesian Poisson-Gamma model for counts. The DL model provides a suitable description of the observed time series of counts, but it cannot give a reliable uncertainty quantification. The role of expert elicitation of the expected number of counts and its reliability is DL predictions' role in the proposed modelling approach. Finally, the posterior predictive distribution of counts is obtained in a standard Bayesian analysis using the well known Poisson-Gamma model. The model allows to predict the future evolution of the sequences on all regions or estimates the consequences of eventual scenarios.
dc.description.sponsorship The MINECO-Spain project PID2019-104790GB-I00 funded the author.
dc.format.extent 18
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher MDPI
dc.rights (copyright) 2021 by the author.
dc.rights Atribución 3.0 España
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/
dc.subject.other Applied bayesian methods
dc.subject.other Covid-19
dc.subject.other Deep learning
dc.subject.other Lstm
dc.subject.other Multivariate time series
dc.subject.other Sars-cov-2
dc.title A bayesian-deep learning model for estimating covid-19 evolution in Spain
dc.type article
dc.subject.eciencia Estadística
dc.subject.eciencia Matemáticas
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.3390/math9222921
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. PID2019-104790GB-I00
dc.type.version publishedVersion
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage 1
dc.identifier.publicationissue 22
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage 18
dc.identifier.publicationtitle Mathematics
dc.identifier.publicationvolume 9
dc.identifier.uxxi AR/0000030417
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
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