Worker churn in the cross section and over time: New evidence from Germany
Publisher:
Elsevier
Issued date:
2021-01-01
Citation:
Bachmann, R., Bayer, C., Merkl, C., Seth, S., Stüber, H., & Wellschmied, F. (2021). Worker churn in the cross section and over time: New evidence from Germany. Journal of Monetary Economics, 117, pp. 781-797.
ISSN:
0304-3932
xmlui.dri2xhtml.METS-1.0.item-contributor-funder:
Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
Comunidad de Madrid
Sponsor:
The research leading to these results has received funding from the European
Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FTP/2007-2013) / ERC
Grant agreement no. 282740. Felix Wellschmied gratefully acknowledges support from the Spanish Ministry
of Economics through research grants ECO2014-56384-P, MDM 2014-0431, and Comunidad de Madrid
MadEco-CM (S2015/HUM-3444). Heiko Stüber gratefully acknowledge support from the German Research Foundation (DFG) under priority program “The German Labor Market in a Globalized World” (SPP 1764). Christian Merkl gratefully acknowledge
support from SPP 1764 and the Hans Frisch Stiftung.
Project:
Gobierno de España. ECO2014-56384-P
Gobierno de España. MDM 2014-0431
Comunidad de Madrid. S2015/HUM-3444
Keywords:
Aggregate Fluctuations
,
Employment Growth
,
Job flows
,
Job-to-job transitions
,
Labor demand
,
Separation shocks
,
Worker churn
,
Worker flows
JEL Classification:
E20
,
E24
,
E32
,
J23
,
J63
Rights:
©2021 Elsevier
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
Abstract:
Worker churn is procyclical in the German labor market. We study the plant-level connection of churn and employment growth using the new Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel from 1975 to 2014. Churn is V-shaped in employment growth. Through analyzin
Worker churn is procyclical in the German labor market. We study the plant-level connection of churn and employment growth using the new Administrative Wage and Labor Market Flow Panel from 1975 to 2014. Churn is V-shaped in employment growth. Through analyzing this pattern by worker skill, age, and tenure, we establish that churn is unlikely to result from plant reorganization but rather from uncertainty about match quality. In a dynamic labor demand framework with a time-to-hire friction, churn can be interpreted as a manifestation of idiosyncratically stochastic separation shocks. These shocks become larger and more predictable during booms, leading to procyclical churn.
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