A bayesian model of covid-19 cases based on the gompertz curve

Berihuete, Ángel; Sánchez Sánchez , Marta; Suárez-Llorens, Alfonso

A bayesian model of covid-19 cases based on the gompertz curve

Author(s): Berihuete, Ángel; Sánchez Sánchez , Marta; Suárez-Llorens, Alfonso

Publisher: MDPI

Issued date: 2021-02-01

Citation: Berihuete, N., Sánchez-Sánchez, M. & Suárez-Llorens, A. (2021). A Bayesian Model of COVID-19 Cases Based on the Gompertz Curve. Mathematics, 9(3), 228.

ISSN: 2227-7390

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/math9030228

xmlui.dri2xhtml.METS-1.0.item-contributor-funder: Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)

Sponsor: This research was funded by the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (Spain), under grant number MTM2017-89577-P, by the 2014-2020 ERDF Operational Programme and by the Consejería de Economía, Conocimiento, Empresas y Universidad (Junta de Andalucía, Spain), under grant: FEDER-UCA18-107519.

Project: Gobierno de España. MTM2017-89577-P

Keywords: Bayesian inference , Gompertz curve , Inverse gaussian , Modeling epidemics , Non-homogeneous poisson process

URI: http://hdl.handle.net/10016/33307

Rights: © 2021 by the authors.
Atribución 3.0 España

Abstract:

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for finding mathematical models to forecast the evolution of the contagious disease and evaluate the success of particular policies in reducing infections. In this work, we perform Bayesian inference for a non-hom [+]