Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds

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Show simple item record Ciaravino, G. García-Saenz, A. Cabras, Stefano Allepuz, A. Casal, J. García-Bocanegra, I. De Koeijer, A. Gubbins, S. Sáez, J. L. Cano-Terriza, D. Napp, S. 2021-06-08T09:23:41Z 2021-06-08T09:23:41Z 2018-06
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation Ciaravino, G., García-Saenz, A., Cabras, S., Allepuz, A., Casal, J., García-Bocanegra, I., De Koeijer, A., Gubbins, S., Sáez, J., Cano-Terriza, D. & Napp, S. (2018). Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds. Epidemics, vol. 23, pp. 110–120.
dc.identifier.issn 1755-4365
dc.description.abstract In Spain, despite years of efforts to eradicate bovine tuberculosis (bTB), the disease is still endemic, with some areas of high prevalence. In this context, the surveillance and control plans may need to be re-evaluated, and understanding the dynamics of bTB spread within Spanish herds may help to develop new strategies for reducing the time for detection of infected herds and for the elimination of bTB from the herds already infected. Here, we developed a compartmental stochastic model to simulate bTB within-herd transmission, fed it with epidemiological data from 22 herds (obtained from a previous work) and carried out parameter inference using Approximate Bayesian Computing methods We also estimated the “Within-herd transmission potential Number” (Rh), i.e. the average number of secondary cases generated by a single animal infected introduced into a totally susceptible herd, considering different scenarios depending on the frequency of controls. The median global values obtained for the transmission parameters were: for the transmission coefficient (β), 0.014 newly infected animals per infectious individual per day (i.e. 5.2 per year), for the rate at which infected individuals become infectious (α), 0.01 per day (equivalent to a latent period of 97 days), and for the rate at which infected individuals become reactive to the skin test (α1), 0.08 per day (equivalent to a period of 12 days for an infected animal to become reactive). However, the results also evidenced a great variability in the estimates of those parameters (in particular β and α) among the 22 herds. Considering a 6-month interval between tests, the mean Rh was 0.23, increasing to 0.82 with an interval of 1 year, and to 2.01 and 3.47 with testing intervals of 2 and 4 years, respectively.
dc.description.sponsorship This research was funded by the Ministerio de Economia y Competitividad (MINECO) of Spain (Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness, EPITUBER Project, number AGL2013-49159-C2-1-R). The PhD of Giovanna Ciaravino was funded by the Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (UAB) of Spain (Autonomous University of Barcelona, grant number D045702/B14P0024).
dc.format.extent 11
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Elsevier
dc.rights Crown © 2018 Published by Elsevier B.V.
dc.rights Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.subject.other Bovine tuberculosis
dc.subject.other Spain
dc.subject.other Disease modelling
dc.subject.other Within-herd transmission parameters
dc.title Assessing the variability in transmission of bovine tuberculosis within Spanish cattle herds
dc.type article
dc.subject.eciencia Estadística
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. AGL2013-49159-C2-1-R
dc.type.version publishedVersion
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage 110
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage 120
dc.identifier.publicationtitle Epidemics
dc.identifier.publicationvolume 23
dc.identifier.uxxi AR/0000021555
dc.contributor.funder Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad (España)
dc.affiliation.dpto UC3M. Departamento de Estadística
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