The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies

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dc.contributor.author Sánchez Barricarte, Jesús Javier
dc.date.accessioned 2020-06-05T08:03:26Z
dc.date.available 2020-06-05T08:03:26Z
dc.date.issued 2017-04-21
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation Sánchez-Barricarte, J.J (2017). The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies.Demographic Research, 36 (art. 42), pp. 1255-1298
dc.identifier.issn 1435-9871
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10016/30560
dc.description.abstract BACKGROUND Demographic transition theory was shattered dramatically as a result of the research carried out in the course of the Princeton European Fertility Project. There is still no consensus among demographers as to the causes underlying the fertility transition. OBJECTIVE We set out to test the explanatory capacity of certain variables which have traditionally been used to interpret the historical decline in fertility (mortality, level of education, economic development, urbanization) as well as the role played by the rise of the welfare state. METHODS We collected information on different kinds of socioeconomic variables in 25 developed countries over a very long period of time. We carried out panel cointegrating regressions and country panel fixed and time effects generalized least squares. RESULTS We show that the decline in mortality, the increase in educational level, and economic factors all played a leading role in the historical decline in fertility. We found that the present welfare system places a remarkable burden on those who decide to have a family. CONCLUSIONS A new kind of public social transfer model needs to be designed which will minimize the damaging consequences that our current welfare states have had with regard to fertility. CONTRIBUTION 1) The emphasis on the causal impact of the emergence and maturation of the social welfare system using Lindert's data on social transfers since the late 19th century to 1990. 2) The enormous amount of historical data compiled, as documented in the Appendix. 3) The modern panel cointegration techniques used to analyze the long- and short-term impacts of the different determinants of fertility.
dc.format.extent 44
dc.language.iso eng
dc.rights © 2017 Jesús J. Sánchez-Barricarte
dc.rights Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.other Demographic-Transition Theory
dc.subject.other Endogenous Fertility
dc.subject.other Explaining Fertility
dc.subject.other Reproductive Change
dc.subject.other Population-Policy
dc.subject.other Child-Mortality
dc.subject.other Social-Security
dc.subject.other Economic-Growth
dc.subject.other Panel-Data
dc.subject.other Decline
dc.title The long-term determinants of marital fertility in the developed world (19th and 20th centuries): The role of welfare policies
dc.type article
dc.subject.eciencia Sociología
dc.identifier.doi https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2017.36.42
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.type.version publishedVersion
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage 1255
dc.identifier.publicationissue 42
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage 1298
dc.identifier.publicationtitle Demographic Research
dc.identifier.publicationvolume 36
dc.identifier.uxxi AR/0000020004
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