Trends in distributional characteristics : Existence of global warming

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Show simple item record Gadea Rivas, María Dolores Gonzalo, Jesús
dc.contributor.editor Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía 2017-02-08T14:47:51Z 2017-02-08T14:47:51Z 2017-01-01
dc.identifier.issn 2340-5031
dc.description.abstract Does global warming exist? The answer to this question is the starting point for all the other issues involved in climate change analysis. In this paper, global warming is defined as an increasing trend in certain distributional characteristics (moments, quantiles, etc) of global temperatures, and not only on the average. Temperatures are seen as a functional stochastic process from which we obtain distributional characteristics as time series objects. We present a simple robust trend test and prove that it is able to detect the existence of an unknown trend component (deterministic or stochastic) in these characteristics. Applying this trend test to daily Central England temperatures (1772-2016) and to Global cross-sectional temperatures (1880-2015), we obtain the same strong conclusions: (i) there is an increasing trend in all the distributional characteristics (time series and cross-sectional) and this trend is larger in the lower quantiles than in the mean, median and upper quantiles; (ii) there is a negative trend in the characteristics measuring dispersion (lower temperatures approach the median faster than the higher ones).The paper concludes by clearly answering the opening question in the afirmative and showing that global-local warming is not only a phenomenon of an increase in the average temperature but also of a larger increase in the lower temperatures producing a decreasing dispersion. This type of warming has more serious consequences than the one found by using only the average.
dc.description.sponsorship We thank seminar participants at Econometric Models of Climate Change (Aarhus), 11th World Congress of the Econometric Society (Montreal), IAAE (London), Time Series Econometrics Workshop (Zaragoza), CFE-ERCIM (Oviedo), EUI (Firenze), ESSEC (Paris), Loughborough, Notthingham, Nuffield College and INET (Oxford), Erasmus School of Economics (Rotterdam), Manchester, Lancaster and Durham for suggestions. Financial support from the Spanish MINECO (grants ECO2013-46395, ECO2016-78652, ECO2014-58991-C3-1-R and ECO2014-58991-C3-2-R and Maria de Maeztu grant MDM 2014-0431), Bank of Spain (ER grant program), and MadEco-CM (grant S2015/HUM-3444) is gratefully acknowledged.
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries UC3M working papers. Economics
dc.relation.ispartofseries 17-03
dc.rights Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.subject.other Climate change
dc.subject.other Global-Local warming
dc.subject.other Functional stochastic processes
dc.subject.other Distributional characteristics
dc.subject.other Trends
dc.subject.other Quantiles
dc.subject.other Temperature distributions
dc.title Trends in distributional characteristics : Existence of global warming
dc.type workingPaper
dc.subject.jel C31
dc.subject.jel C32
dc.subject.jel Q54
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. ECO2013-46395
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. ECO2016-78652
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. ECO2014-58991-C3-1-R
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. ECO2014-58991-C3-2-R
dc.relation.projectID Comunidad de Madrid. S2015/HUM-3444/MADECO-CM
dc.type.version draft
dc.identifier.uxxi DT/0000001506
dc.affiliation.dpto UC3M. Departamento de Economía
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