Wind-Based Robust Trajectory Optimization using Meteorological Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts

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Show simple item record González Arribas, Daniel Soler Arnedo, Manuel Fernando Sanjurjo Rivo, Manuel 2016-12-02T09:31:11Z 2016-12-02T09:31:11Z 2016-11-08
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitation Proceedings of SESAR Innovation Days 2016 (SIDs'16)
dc.identifier.isbn 0770-1268
dc.description.abstract A major challenge for Trajectory-Based Operations is the existence of significant uncertainties in the models and systems required for trajectory prediction. In particular, weather uncertainty has been acknowledged as one of the most (if not the most) relevant ones. In the present paper we present preliminary results on robust trajectory planning at the pre-tactical level. The main goal is to plan trajectories that are efficient, yet predictable. State-of-the-art forecasts from Ensemble Prediction Systems are used as input data for the wind field, which we assume to be the unique source of uncertainty. We develop an ad-hoc optimal control methodology to solve trajectory planning problems considering uncertainty in wind fields. A set of Paretooptimal trajectories is obtained for different preferences between predictability and average efficiency; in particular, we present and discuss results for the minimum average fuel trajectory and the most predictable trajectory, including the trade-off between fuel consumption and time dispersion. We show how uncertainty can be quantified and reduced by proposing alternative trajectories.
dc.description.sponsorship This work has been partially supported by project TBO-MET project (https://tbometh2020. com/), which has received funding from the SESAR JU under grant agreement No 699294 under European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme. This work is also partially supported by the Spanish Government through Project entitled Analysis and optimisation of aircraft trajectories under the effects of meteorological uncertainty (TRA2014-58413-C2-2-R). The project has been funded under RD&I actions of Programa Estatal de Investigación, Desarrollo e Innovación Orientada a los Retos de la Sociedad (call 2014).
dc.description.sponsorship European Commission
dc.format.extent 8
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.publisher Eurocontrol
dc.rights © Sesar Innovation Days
dc.rights Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.title Wind-Based Robust Trajectory Optimization using Meteorological Ensemble Probabilistic Forecasts
dc.type conferenceObject
dc.subject.eciencia Aeronáutica
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.relation.projectID info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/699294
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. TRA2014-58413-C2-2-R
dc.type.version publishedVersion
dc.relation.eventdate 08-10 november 2016
dc.relation.eventplace Países Bajos
dc.relation.eventtitle The Sixth SESAR Innovation Days
dc.relation.eventtype proceeding
dc.identifier.publicationtitle Schaefer, D. (Ed.). Proceedings of SESAR Innovation Days 2016 (SIDs'16)
dc.identifier.uxxi CC/0000024471
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