Publication: La continuidad del crecimiento económico en España. 1850-1936
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1998
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Marcial Pons : Centro de Estudios Constitucionales
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El crecimiento de la economía española durante los siglos XIX y XX ha sido en gran medida singular. Mientras en el siglo XIX España permaneció al margen del proceso de industrialización, durante el siglo XX se ha unido al reducido grupo de los países desarrollados. Este artículo contrasta para la etapa 1850-1936 la existencia de rupturas dentro de este proceso, aplicando diferentes tests econométricos asociados a los trabajos de Perron y de Zivot y Andrews, a las series de PNB, producción industrial e inversión. Los resultados confirman una continuidad básica en el crecimiento español. Sin embargo, muestran también la existencia de dos cambios de nivel: 1870 para la producción industrial y 1919 en la inversión pública
The Spanish pattern of economic growth during the last two centuries is quite unique. In the nineteenth century the country remained outside the process of industrialization, but during the twentieth century he has joined the small group of developed economies. This article tests the existence of discontinuities between 1850-1936 in the series of PNB, industrial production and private and public investment by utilizing recent developments in the econometric analysis associated with the work of Perron and Zivot and Andrews. The results confirm the continuity of the Spanish growth during the decades considered. However, they also show two breakpoint years: 1870 in the series of industrial production and 1919 in the data of public investment.
The Spanish pattern of economic growth during the last two centuries is quite unique. In the nineteenth century the country remained outside the process of industrialization, but during the twentieth century he has joined the small group of developed economies. This article tests the existence of discontinuities between 1850-1936 in the series of PNB, industrial production and private and public investment by utilizing recent developments in the econometric analysis associated with the work of Perron and Zivot and Andrews. The results confirm the continuity of the Spanish growth during the decades considered. However, they also show two breakpoint years: 1870 in the series of industrial production and 1919 in the data of public investment.
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Editada en la Fundación Empresa Pública
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Revista de Historia Económica Año XVI otoño 1998 n. 3 pp. 619--643