Mismeasuring long run growth : the bias from spliced national accounts

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dc.contributor.author Prados de la Escosura, Leandro
dc.contributor.editor Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales
dc.date.accessioned 2014-09-12T12:23:09Z
dc.date.available 2014-09-12T12:23:09Z
dc.date.issued 2014-09-01
dc.identifier.issn 2341-2542
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10016/19340
dc.description.abstract Comparisons of economic performance over space and time largely depend on how statistical evidence from national accounts and historical estimates are spliced. To allow for changes in relative prices, GDP benchmark years in national accounts are periodically replaced with new and more recent ones. Thus, a homogeneous long-run GDP series requires linking different temporal segments of national accounts. The choice of the splicing procedure may result in substantial differences in GDP levels and growth, particularly as an economy undergoes deep structural transformation. An inadequate splicing may result in a serious bias in the measurement of GDP levels and growth rates. Alternative splicing solutions are discussed in this paper for the particular case of Spain, a fast growing country in the second half of the twentieth century. It is concluded that the usual linking procedure, retropolation, has serious flows as it tends to bias GDP levels upwards and, consequently, to underestimate growth rates, especially for developing countries experiencing structural change. An alternative interpolation procedure is proposed.
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries Working papers in Economic History
dc.relation.ispartofseries 14-04
dc.rights Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.other Growth measurement
dc.subject.other Splicing GDP
dc.subject.other Historical national accounts
dc.subject.other Spain
dc.title Mismeasuring long run growth : the bias from spliced national accounts
dc.type workingPaper
dc.subject.jel C82
dc.subject.jel E01
dc.subject.jel N13
dc.subject.jel O47
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.type.version submitedVersion
dc.identifier.uxxi DT/0000001275
dc.identifier.repec wp14-04
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