Publication: Crisis and Growth: A Latin American Perspective
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2007
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Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Laureano Figuerola
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Abstract
En este artículo uso datos históricos para analizar la relación entre crisis y crecimiento en América Latina. Calculo en cuanto se ha reducido el PIB per capita en la región como consecuencia de las recurrentes crisis externas. Analizo, también, los principales determinantes de las crisis de balanzas de pagos. La principal conclusión es que es poco probable que América Latina experimente, en promedio, una mejora importante en su crecimiento en el largo plazo. Es posible que algunos países experimenten un cierto progreso en su convergencia con los países avanzados. Esto, sin embargo no será la norma; la mayoría de los países latinoamericanos se atrasaran en relación a los países asiáticos y otros países en desarrollo emergentes. Mi análisis también sugiere que en el futuro el tipo de crisis catastróficas, tan comunes en la región, afectarán a un menor número de países. El futuro de América Latina será «Sin crisis y con un crecimiento muy modesto».
In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region’s GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America’s future will be one of «No crises and very modest growth».
In this paper I use historical data to analyze the relationship between crises and growth in Latin America. I calculate by how much the region’s GDP per capita has been reduced as a consequence of the recurrence of external crises. I also analyze the determinants of major balance of payments crises. The main conclusion is that it is unlikely that Latin America will, on average, experience a major improvement in long run growth in the future. It is possible that some countries will make progress in catching up with the advanced nations. This, however, will not be the norm; most Latin American countries are likely to fall further behind in relation to the Asian countries and other emerging nations. Not everything, however, is grim. My analysis also suggests that fewer Latin America countries will be subject to the type of catastrophic crises that affected the region in the past. Latin America’s future will be one of «No crises and very modest growth».
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Crecimiento, Déficits por cuenta corriente, Interrupciones súbitas, Crisis, Instituciones, América Latina, Growth, Current account deficits,, Sudden stops, Crises, Institutions, Latin America
Bibliographic citation
Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Año XXV, primavera 2007, n. 1, pp. 19-52