Combining benchmarking and chain-linking for short-term regional forecasting

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dc.contributor.author Cuevas, Ángel
dc.contributor.author Quilis, Enrique M.
dc.contributor.author Espasa, Antoni
dc.contributor.editor Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística
dc.date.accessioned 2013-02-12T15:25:46Z
dc.date.available 2013-02-12T15:25:46Z
dc.date.issued 2011-12
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10016/12704
dc.description.abstract In this paper we propose a methodology to estimate and forecast the GDP of the different regions of a country, providing quarterly profiles paper offers a new instrument for short degree of synchronicity among regional business cycles. Technically, we combine time series models with benchma quarterly indicators and to estimate quarterly regional GDPs ensuring their temporal and transversal consistency with the National Accounts data. The methodology addresses the issue of non-additivity taking into account linked volume indexes used by the National Accounts and provides an efficient combination of structural as well as short-term information. The methodology is illustrated by an application to the quarterly GDP estimates and forecasts at the regional level (i.e., with a minimum compilation delay with respect to the national quarterly GDP)
dc.description.sponsorship Antoni Espasa acknowledges financial support from Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia project ECO2009-08100
dc.format.mimetype application/pdf
dc.format.mimetype text/plain
dc.language.iso eng
dc.relation.ispartofseries UC3M Working papers. Statistics and Econometrics
dc.relation.ispartofseries 11-41
dc.rights Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/es/
dc.subject.other Forecasting
dc.subject.other Spanish economy
dc.subject.other Regional analysis
dc.subject.other Benchmarking
dc.subject.other Chain-linking
dc.title Combining benchmarking and chain-linking for short-term regional forecasting
dc.type workingPaper
dc.subject.jel C53
dc.subject.jel C43
dc.subject.jel C82
dc.subject.jel R11
dc.subject.eciencia Estadística
dc.rights.accessRights openAccess
dc.date.modified 2012-05
dc.relation.projectID Gobierno de España. ECO2009-08100
dc.type.version submitedVersion
dc.identifier.uxxi DT/0000000956
dc.identifier.repec ws114130
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