Publisher:
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Laureano Figuerola: Centro de Estudios Políticos y Constitucionales
Issued date:
2006
Citation:
Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Año XXIV, primavera 2006, n. 1, pp.9-36
ISSN:
0212-6109
Review:
PeerReviewed
Keywords:
Globalización
,
Desarrollo humano
,
Desindustrialización
,
Países en vías de desarrollo
,
Globalization
,
Underdevelopment
,
Deindustrialization
,
Developing countries
Rights:
Atribución-NoComercial-SinDerivadas 3.0 España
Abstract:
Between 1810 and 1940, a large GDP per capita gap appeared between the industrial core and the poor periphery, the latter producing, increasingly, primary products. Over the same period, the terms of trade facing the periphery underwent a secular boom then busBetween 1810 and 1940, a large GDP per capita gap appeared between the industrial core and the poor periphery, the latter producing, increasingly, primary products. Over the same period, the terms of trade facing the periphery underwent a secular boom then bust, peaking in the 1870s or 1890s. These terms of trade
trends appear to have been exogenous to the periphery. Additionally, the terms of trade facing the periphery exhibited relatively high volatility. Are these correlations spurious, or are they causal? This Figuerola Lecture, to be given at Carlos III University (Madrid), argues that they are causal, that secular growth and volatility
in the terms of trade had asymmetric effects on core and periphery. On the upswing, the secular rise in its terms of trade had powerful de-industrialization effects in the periphery. Over the full cycle 1810-1940, terms of trade volatility suppressed accumulation and growth in the periphery as well.[+][-]