Publication: Validation of a diagnostic support system for diabetic retinopathy based on clinical parameters
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2021-03
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Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology (ARVO)
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Abstract
Purpose: To validate a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that estimates risk of diabetic retinopathy (DR) and to personalize screening protocols in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients.
Methods: We utilized a CDSS based on a fuzzy random forest, integrated by fuzzy decision trees with the following variables: current age, sex, arterial hypertension, diabetes duration and treatment, HbA1c, glomerular filtration rate, microalbuminuria, and body mass index. Validation was made using the electronic health records of a sample of 101,802 T2DM patients. Diagnosis was made by retinal photographs, according to EURODIAB guidelines and the International Diabetic Retinopathy Classification.
Results: The prevalence of DR was 19,759 patients (19.98%). Results yielded 16,593 (16.31%) true positives, 72,617 (71.33%) true negatives, 3165 (3.1%) false positives, and 9427 (9.26%) false negatives, with an accuracy of 0.876 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.858–0.886), sensitivity of 84% (95% CI, 83.46–84.49), specificity of 88.5% (95% CI, 88.29–88.72), positive predictive value of 63.8% (95% CI, 63.18–64.35), negative predictive value of 95.8% (95% CI, 95.68–95.96), positive likelihood ratio of 7.30, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.18. The type 1 error was 0.115, and the type 2 error was 0.16.
Conclusions: We confirmed a good prediction rate for DR from a representative sample of T2DM in our population. Furthermore, the CDSS was able to offer an individualized screening protocol for each patient according to the calculated risk confidence value.
Translational Relevance: Results from this study will help to establish a novel strategy for personalizing screening for DR according to patient risk factors.
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Clinical decision support system, Diabetic retinopathy, Epidemiology, Fuzzy rules, Random forest, Screening
Bibliographic citation
Romero-Aroca, P., Verges-Pujol, R., Santos-Blanco, E., Maarof, N., Valls, A., Mundet, X., Moreno, A., Galindo, L. & Baget-Bernaldiz, M. (2021). Validation of a Diagnostic Support System for Diabetic Retinopathy Based on Clinical Parameters. Translational Vision Science & Technology, 10(3), 17.