Publication:
Forecasting the electricity load from one day to one week ahead for the Spanish system operator

Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Identifiers
Publication date
2008
Defense date
Advisors
Tutors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Elsevier
Impact
Google Scholar
Export
Research Projects
Organizational Units
Journal Issue
Abstract
This paper discusses the building process and models used by Red Eléctrica de España (REE), the Spanish system operator, in short term electricity load forecasting. REE's forecasting system consists of one daily model and 24 hourly models with a common structure. There are two types of forecasts of special interest to REE, several days ahead predictions for daily data, and one day ahead hourly forecasts. Accordingly, the forecast accuracy is assessed in terms of their errors. To do this, we analyse historical, real time forecasting errors for daily and hourly data for the year 2006, and report the forecasting performance by day of the week, time of the year and type of day. Other aspects of the prediction problem, like the influence of the errors in predicting the temperature on forecasting the load several days ahead, or the need for an adequate treatment of special days, are also investigated.
Description
Keywords
Energy forecasting, Hourly and daily models, Time series, Forecasting practice
Bibliographic citation
International Journal of Forecasting, 2008, 24, 4. p.588-602.