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Estimating non-stationary common factors : Implications for risk sharing

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2017-05
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Abstract
In this paper, we analyze and compare the finite sample properties of alternative factor extraction procedures in the context of non-stationary Dynamic Factor Models (DFMs). On top of considering procedures already available in the literature, we extend the hybrid method based on the combination of principal components and Kalman filter and smoothing algorithms to non-stationary models. We show that, unless the idiosyncratic noise is non-stationary, procedures based on extracting the factors using the nonstationary original series work better than those based on differenced variables. The results are illustrated in an empirical application fitting non-stationary DFM to aggregate GDP and consumption of the set of 21 OECD industrialized countries. The goal is to check international risk sharing is a short or long-run issue.
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Consumption smoothing, Long-run/Short-run estimation, Non-stationary Dynamic Factor Models, Kalman filter, Principal components, Resilience, Risk sharing
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