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Frameworks for evaluating macroeconomic policies

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2014-05
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2014-06-10
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Estados Unidos
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This thesis brings together the three chapters that together form my PhD thesis. As indicated by the title, Frameworks for Evaluating Macroeconomic Policies, the common theme linking the three is a focus on the development of modeling frameworks that can be used for the evaluation of Macroeconomic policies. Ways in which these models can be compared with each other and with the data are recurrent themes. The first chapter How to Model Money? Racing Monetary Frameworks against the Quantity Theory of Money is about finding frameworks for evaluating monetary policies. Currently three main approaches exist: CashinAdvance, New Keynesian, and SearchMoney. Using empirical facts on the Quantity Theory of Money as a yardstick we compare these three frameworks. It results that all three frameworks are display the Quantity Theory of Money over the longrun, as in the data. But all three frameworks display way too much of the Quantity Theory of Money over the shortrun. The race thus ends in a draw, but one illustrative of the strengths and weaknesses of all three frameworks. The results suggest that better modeling of other causes of inflation, and of heterogeneity, are important to improving monetary models. The second chapter Evaluating a FlatTax Reform is a quantitative modelling of a flattax reform for the US. The modeling focuses on replicating the details of current US taxation and inequality. This later is important as the effects on inequality of such a tax reform are one of the main arguments given against it. The third chapter Estimation of BewleyHuggettAiyagari Models: Theory and Implementation present inprogress work developing theory relevant to simulated moment and simulated likelihood estimation of a class of heterogeneous agent models. Theory focuses on developing the required assumptions directly from model fundamentals, and from accounting for the dependence of the estimation on numerical solution and simulation of the models. Attention is also given to implementation of the estimators, in particular which algorithms work computationally. The three chapters are presented here in the form of three separate articles. However the common thread of developing frameworks for the evaluation of macroeconomic policies is clearly evident throughout. I hope they may be of interest to the reader
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Macroeconomía, Política económica, Política monetaria, Impuestos, Modelo económico
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