Publication:
Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?: Evidence from a natural experiment

dc.affiliation.dptoUC3M. Departamento de Economíaes
dc.contributor.authorPalguta, Jan
dc.contributor.authorLevınský, René
dc.contributor.authorSkoda, Samuel
dc.contributor.funderUniversidad Carlos III de Madrid
dc.contributor.funderComunidad de Madrides
dc.date.accessioned2022-03-16T16:02:19Z
dc.date.available2022-03-16T16:02:19Z
dc.date.issued2022-01-01
dc.description.abstractElections define representative democracies but also produce spikes in physical mobility if voters need to travel to polling places. In this paper, we examine whether large-scale, in-person elections propagate the spread of COVID-19. We exploit a natural experiment from the Czech Republic, which biannually renews mandates in one-third of Senate constituencies that rotate according to the 1995 election law. We show that in the second and third weeks after the 2020 elections (held on October 9–10), new COVID-19 infections grew significantly faster in voting compared to non-voting constituencies. A temporarily related peak in hospital admissions and essentially no changes in test positivity rates suggest that the acceleration was not merely due to increased testing. The acceleration did not occur in the population above 65, consistently with strategic risk-avoidance by older voters. Our results have implications for postal voting reforms or postponing of large-scale, in-person (electoral) events during viral outbreaks.en
dc.description.sponsorshipWe would like to thank PAQ Research agency for sharing data from the “Life during the Pandemic” panel survey with us. Palguta gratefully acknowledges financial support from the Community of Madrid via grants 2017/T2-SOC-5363 and EPUC3M11 (V PRICIT). Levínsky was supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic through the project SHARE–CZ+ (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_013/0001740).en
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationPalguta, J., Levínský, R., & Škoda, S. (2022). Do elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?. Evidence from a natural experiment. Journal of Population Economics, 35 (1), pp. 197-240.es
dc.identifier.doihttps://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-021-00870-1
dc.identifier.issn0933-1433
dc.identifier.publicationfirstpage197es
dc.identifier.publicationissue1es
dc.identifier.publicationlastpage240es
dc.identifier.publicationtitleJOURNAL OF POPULATION ECONOMICSes
dc.identifier.publicationvolume35es
dc.identifier.urihttps://hdl.handle.net/10016/34395
dc.identifier.uxxiAR/0000029486
dc.language.isoenges
dc.publisherSpringeres
dc.relation.projectIDComunidad de Madrid. 2017/T2-SOC-5363es
dc.relation.projectIDComunidad de Madrid. EPUC3M11
dc.relation.projectIDAT-2021
dc.rights© 2022 The Authorses
dc.rightsAtribución 3.0 España*
dc.rights.accessRightsopen accesses
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/es/*
dc.subject.ecienciaEconomíaes
dc.subject.jelD70
dc.subject.jelD72
dc.subject.jelH0
dc.subject.jelH12
dc.subject.jelH75
dc.subject.jelI10
dc.subject.jelI18
dc.subject.otherCovid-19en
dc.subject.otherElectionen
dc.subject.otherEvent studyen
dc.subject.otherNatural experimenten
dc.titleDo elections accelerate the COVID-19 pandemic?: Evidence from a natural experimenten
dc.typeresearch article*
dc.type.hasVersionVoR*
dspace.entity.typePublication
Files
Original bundle
Now showing 1 - 1 of 1
Loading...
Thumbnail Image
Name:
elections_JPE_2022.pdf
Size:
1.86 MB
Format:
Adobe Portable Document Format