Publication: Modelling adaptive complex behaviour with an application to the stock markets dynamics
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1998-11
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Abstract
In this paper we review a simple agent-based model of adaptive complex behaviour that shows how the interaction of different agent's profit-oriented decisions leads to a wide spectra of organizational possibilities. We comment on some potential applications of this model to the social and life sciences, and later focus on the modelling of the stock market dynamics. We show how some ~f the features of stock price series, and in particular extreme events such as speculative bubbles and crashes, can be obtained when certain conditions are satisfied by most of the investors' preferences.
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Nonlinear time series, chaos, complexity, bounded rationality, crashes, bubbles, stock market dynamics