Probabilistic load flow with wind production uncertainty using cumulants and Cornish–Fisher expansion

Abstract

This paper proposes a method for probabilistic load flow in networks with wind generation, where the uncertainty of the production is non-Gaussian. The method is based on the properties of the cumulants of the probability density functions (PDF) and the Cornish–Fisher expansion, which is more suitable for non-Gaussian PDF than other approaches, such as Gram–Charlier series. The paper includes examples and comparisons between different methods proposed in literature.