Publication: A multivariate generalized independent factor GARCH model with an application to financial stock returns
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2008-12
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Abstract
We propose a new multivariate factor GARCH model, the GICA-GARCH model ,
where the data are assumed to be generated by a set of independent components (ICs).
This model applies independent component analysis (ICA) to search the conditionally
heteroskedastic latent factors. We will use two ICA approaches to estimate the ICs. The
first one estimates the components maximizing their non-gaussianity, and the second
one exploits the temporal structure of the data. After estimating the ICs, we fit an
univariate GARCH model to the volatility of each IC. Thus, the GICA-GARCH reduces
the complexity to estimate a multivariate GARCH model by transforming it into a small
number of univariate volatility models. We report some simulation experiments to show
the ability of ICA to discover leading factors in a multivariate vector of financial data.
An empirical application to the Madrid stock market will be presented, where we
compare the forecasting accuracy of the GICA-GARCH model versus the orthogonal
GARCH one.
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ICA, Multivariate GARCH, Factor models, Forecasting volatility